Match Info

Ligue 3 - Round 7

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Guy Piriou (Concarneau)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Italy	Ligue 1+
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+


	Concarneau		Caen

	1	X	2
	2.30	3.10	2.75
	2.30	2.95	2.85
	2.56	3.20	2.96
	2.43	3.27	2.67	Watch
	2.50	3.05	2.90
	2.38	2.96	2.77
	2.37	3.10	2.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↑ (2.34)	3.09 ↑ (3.07)	2.81 ↓ (2.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Concarneau
38%

Draw
29.6%

Caen
32.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.3%

29.9%

30.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

30.3%

31.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Concarneau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Caen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Concarneau than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caen than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	100%	0%

Concarneau - Caen Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. It will Tie (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Viot V. (G) 18. Da Silva F. 24. Divialle C. 5. Etcheverria B. 23. Goujon L. 27. Halby J. 9. Janno S. 8. Picouleau M. 14. Rosier L. 6. Seba D. 26. Sinquin T.	16. Clementia Y. (G) 12. Appiah D. 25. Bagbema Z. 3. Bolumbu D. 18. Bomo F. 10. Botella I. 23. Carole L. 9. El Khoumisti F. 34. Kanoute D. 24. Milliner L. 20. Portut K.
Substitutes
2. Lafontaine G. 22. Macon B. 40. Patron P. (G) 17. Sidibe A. 7. Varvat J. 15. Yatera D.	29. Diakite S. 11. Gnanduillet A. 6. Kimboma J. 19. Lamouliatte H. 4. Mbaka S. 28. Saivet H. 40. Tutu R. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', Rosier L. ↓, Macon B. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
58', Bagbema Z. ↓, Kimboma J. ↑,
64', Da Silva F. ↓, Gbelle G. ↑,
66', 1 - 0, Halby J. ⚽,
67', Portut K. 🟨,
69', 2 - 0, Janno S. ⚽, Macon B. (A),
70', Botella I. ↓, Saivet H. ↑,
70', Kanoute D. ↓, Gnanduillet A. ↑,
75', Halby J. 🟨,
78', Macon B. ↓, Sidibe A. ↑,
81', Bolumbu D. ↓, Diakite S. ↑,
81', Milliner L. ↓, Mbaka S. ↑,
90', Sidibe A. 🟨,

Preview

A competitive mid-table side looks to challenge an upper-table opponent (ranked 7th and 2nd in the Promotion ~ Ligue 2).

Concarneau is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Caen has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Concarneau has recorded 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:6 (averaging 0.6:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Concarneau against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 3:5 goals (averaging 1.5:2.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Concarneau	9	4	4	1	12:8	4	16
7	Caen	9	5	0	4	17:12	5	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Concarneau
French Ligue 3
12.09.26	Aubagne - Concarneau	1:2 ✺
05.09.26	Concarneau - Thionville Lusitanos	2:2 ✺
29.08.26	Valenciennes - Concarneau	0:0 ✺
20.08.26	Concarneau - Villefranche	2:0 ✺
14.08.26	Quevilly - Concarneau	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WTTWT
- SM Caen
French Ligue 3
12.09.26	Caen - Paris 13 Atletico	2:0 ✺
05.09.26	Bourg-Péronnas - Caen	0:2 ✺
27.08.26	Caen - Bastia	0:1 ✺
20.08.26	Caen - Aubagne	1:0 ✺
14.08.26	Thionville Lusitanos - Caen	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 3
09.05.26	Caen - Concarneau	0:0
16.01.26	Concarneau - Caen	3:3
French Ligue 2
13.01.24	Caen - Concarneau	1:0
19.08.23	Concarneau - Caen	0:2
Club Friendly
14.07.18	Caen - Concarneau	0:0

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