Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 11

Date: 5 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Estadual Lourival Baptista (Aracaju)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, Zapping


	Confiança		ABC

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.25	2.75	3.1
	2.45	2.72	2.98	Watch
	2.54	2.76	3.13
				Watch
	2.38	2.62	3.1
	2.47	2.72	3.06	Watch
	2.05	3.08	3.49
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↑ (2.05)	2.78 ↓ (3.03)	3.14 ↓ (3.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Confiança
38.5%

Draw
32.7%

ABC
28.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44%

29.8%

26.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

29.5%

26.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Confiança has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Confiança's form might have worsened.

ABC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Confiança than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Confiança, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for ABC than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	40%	20%

Confiança - ABC Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Confiança will win (votes: 2 - 40%). ABC will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Felipe Scheibig (G) 6. Airton 8. Dionisio 4. Eduardo Moura 9. Neto Oliveira 10. Nicholas 13. Renilson 11. Thiago Santos 7. Valdir Junior 14. Valdo (C) 2. Weriton	12. Pedro Paulo (G) 4. Bruno Bispo (C) 17. Bruno Leite 8. Carlos Eduardo 21. Ian 20. Jonatha Carlos 2. Lucas Mota 6. Lucas Sampaio 7. Matheus Martins 15. Windson 19. Ytalo
Substitutes
16. Alan Cardoso 12. Allan (G) 21. Breiner C. 17. Fabricio Pereira 15. Lucas Souza 5. Luiz Otavio 3. Maicon 19. Matheusinho 20. Rafinha 22. Ronald Camarao 30. Souza J. 18. Vitinho	10. Anderson Rosa 1. Felipe Garcia (G) 9. Jenison 5. Lucas Goncalves 16. Manoel 26. Matheus Rocha 13. Octavio 18. Orlando Junior 14. Randerson 3. Renato Vischi 11. Wallyson

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Carlos Eduardo 🟨,
28', Neto Oliveira 🟨,
32', Windson ↓, Matheus Rocha ↑,
34', Lucas Sampaio 🟨,
40', Ytalo 🟨,
45', Eduardo Moura 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Thiago Santos ↓, Matheusinho ↑,
46', Weriton ↓, Breiner C. ↑,
62', Valdo ↓, Vitinho ↑,
63', Nicholas ↓, Ronald Camarao ↑,
66', Matheus Martins ↓, Wallyson ↑,
67', Jonatha Carlos ↓, Orlando Junior ↑,
69', 🟨,
79', Ytalo ↓, Anderson Rosa ↑,
79', Lucas Sampaio ↓, Manoel ↑,
83', Neto Oliveira (Pen),
84', 🟨,
84', Dionisio ↓, Fabricio Pereira ↑,
86', 🟨,
90+3', 0 - 1, Bruno Leite ⚽,
90+7', 1 - 1, Rafinha ⚽,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie D and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Confiança won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Confiança could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Confiança won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:9. (average 0.8:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Confiança won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 1:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Confiança Aracaju
Brazilian Serie C
29.06.25	Figueirense - Confiança	1:1 ✺
15.06.25	Ypiranga - Confiança	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
07.06.25	Juazeirense - Confiança	0:0 ✺
04.06.25	Confiança - Bahia	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
01.06.25	Confiança - Brusque	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.4 TLTWW
- ABC FC
Brazilian Serie C
29.06.25	ABC - Ypiranga	0:3 ✺
14.06.25	Ponte Preta - ABC	0:0 ✺
31.05.25	ABC - Náutico Capibaribe	0:0 ✺
24.05.25	Londrina - ABC	1:1 ✺
19.05.25	ABC - Anápolis	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LTTTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
25.05.24	Confiança - ABC	0:0
25.06.22	ABC - Confiança	0:0
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
13.03.21	ABC - Confiança	1:1
25.01.20	Confiança - ABC	1:0
Brazilian Serie C
12.07.19	ABC - Confiança	1:2
12.05.19	Confiança - ABC	1:0
14.07.18	ABC - Confiança	4:0

Confiança - ABC: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide