Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 9

Date: 14 June 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Moisés Lucarelli (Campinas)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	BandSports, Claro TV+, DAZN Brasil, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Ponte Preta		ABC

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.72	2.9	5.25
	1.68	3.1	5.15	Watch
	1.73	3.22	5.84
				Watch
	1.75	2.8	5.5
	1.64	3.15	5.9	Watch
	1.68	3.1	5.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↑ (1.53)	3.05 ↓ (3.47)	5.47 ↓ (5.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponte Preta
53.5%

Draw
29.9%

ABC
16.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.8%

26%

15.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.6%

25.2%

14.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponte Preta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ponte Preta's form might have worsened.

ABC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponte Preta than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ponte Preta, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for ABC than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Ponte Preta - ABC Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ponte Preta (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Diogo Silva (G) 10. Elvis 18. Emerson Santos 29. Everton Brito 7. Jean Dias 9. Jeh 36. Leocovick 25. Lucas Candido 2. Maguinho 4. Saimon 6. Sergio Raphael	1. Felipe Garcia (G) 4. Bruno Bispo (C) 17. Bruno Leite 8. Carlos Eduardo 20. Jonatha Carlos 2. Lucas Mota 6. Lucas Sampaio 7. Matheus Martins 13. Octavio 14. Wellington Reis 19. Ytalo
Substitutes
26. Concha V. 33. Danrlei Santos 35. Diego Tavares 99. Gustavo Vintecinco 20. Joao Gabriel 17. Jonas Toro 55. Leo Oliveira 27. Luiz Felipe 28. Pacheco 1. Pedro Rocha (G) 5. Rodrigo Souza 37. Serginho	16. Ezequiel 21. Ian 9. Jenison 23. Joaozinho 25. Juninho 26. Matheus Rocha 18. Orlando Junior 12. Pedro Paulo (G) 3. Renato Vischi 11. Wallyson 15. Windson

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Matheus Martins 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Emerson Santos ↓, Luiz Felipe ↑,
46', Lucas Candido ↓, Leo Oliveira ↑,
51', Lucas Mota 🟨,
66', Matheus Martins ↓, Orlando Junior ↑,
66', Jonatha Carlos ↓, Wallyson ↑,
69', Wellington Reis 🟨,
71', Maguinho 🟨,
72', Ytalo ↓, Jenison ↑,
72', Bruno Leite ↓, Joaozinho ↑,
74', Jean Dias ↓, Diego Tavares ↑,
74', Everton Brito ↓, Jonas Toro ↑,
81', Elvis ↓, Serginho ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: ) and 15).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Ponte Preta is seen as the favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Ponte Preta won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Ponte Preta won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AA Ponte Preta
Brazilian Serie C
02.06.25	Ponte Preta - Ypiranga	0:1 ✺
24.05.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Ponte Preta	0:1 ✺
17.05.25	Ponte Preta - Brusque	1:4 ✺
12.05.25	Ituano - Ponte Preta	0:1 ✺
03.05.25	Ponte Preta - Anápolis	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LWLWW
- ABC FC
Brazilian Serie C
31.05.25	ABC - Náutico Capibaribe	0:0 ✺
24.05.25	Londrina - ABC	1:1 ✺
19.05.25	ABC - Anápolis	3:3 ✺
10.05.25	Brusque - ABC	0:1 ✺
03.05.25	ABC - Ituano	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 TTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
30.09.23	ABC - Ponte Preta	2:0
06.06.23	Ponte Preta - ABC	0:0
16.09.14	ABC - Ponte Preta	0:2
10.05.14	Ponte Preta - ABC	2:1

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