Match Info

BRAZIL: Copa do Nordeste - Round 2

Date: 5 February 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estádio Estadual Lourival Baptista (Aracaju)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Confiança		Náutico Capibaribe

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.1	3.4
	2.1	3	3.4
	2.21	2.96	3.58
	2.02	3.14	3.64	Watch
	2.05	3	3.6
	1.96	3.2	3.61
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↓ (2.41)	3.07 ↑ (3.01)	3.54 ↑ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Confiança
44.2%

Draw
29.9%

Náutico Capibaribe
25.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38%

30.4%

31.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

29.9%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Confiança has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Confiança's performance.

Náutico Capibaribe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Náutico Capibaribe might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Confiança than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Confiança that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Náutico Capibaribe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Confiança - Náutico Capibaribe Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 6:6

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rafael Mariano (G) 6. Airton 8. Andre Lima (C) 4. Eduardo Moura 5. Fabio Silva 10. Luiz Otavio 3. Maicon 9. Rodriguinho 7. Ronald Camarao 2. Valdir Junior 11. Weriton	1. Wellerson R. (G) 18. Auremir 80. Bruno Mezenga (C) 23. Igor Fernandes 12. Leo Coltro 8. Marco Antonio 17. Marcos Ytalo 34. Otusanya O. 20. Patrick Allan 3. Rayan 22. Wenderson
Substitutes
15. Alan Cardoso 20. Camilo B. 16. Fabricio 12. Felipe Scheibig (G) 14. Jackson Henrique 19. Matheus Bambu 31. Murillo Lopes (G) 18. Neto Oliveira 17. Rafinha 13. Renilson	35. de Sousa Oliveira T. 21. Felipe Redaelli 16. Felipe Santana 10. Geovane 7. Helio Borges 5. Igor Pereira 27. Kauan Maranhao 15. Kayon 32. Leo (G) 14. Odivan 38. Samuel

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Rayan ↓, Felipe Santana ↑,
40', Auremir 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', Wenderson 🟨,
62', Wenderson ↓, Kauan Maranhao ↑,
66', Eduardo Moura 🟨,
70', Wellerson R. 🟨,
71', Rodriguinho ↓, Neto Oliveira ↑,
71', Weriton ↓, Camilo B. ↑,
77', 1 - 0, Camilo B. ⚽,
83', Marco Antonio ↓, Geovane ↑,
86', Airton ↓, Alan Cardoso ↑,
87', Luiz Otavio ↓, Renilson ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Confiança won 2.

Confiança is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Náutico is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Confiança could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Confiança have a series of guest games.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Confiança won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 18:13 (average 1.8:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Confiança won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7:6 (average 1.4:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Confiança Aracaju
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
02.02.25	Confiança - Lagarto	4:0 ✺
29.01.25	América de Propriá - Confiança	1:1 ✺
26.01.25	Carmópolis - Confiança	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
21.01.25	CS Alagoano - Confiança	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
16.01.25	Falcon - Confiança	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WTWLW
- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
02.02.25	Retrô Brasil - Náutico Capibaribe	1:0 ✺
30.01.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Maguary	2:0 ✺
25.01.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Santa Cruz Recife	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
22.01.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Ceará	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
19.01.25	Central SC - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
01.07.24	Náutico Capibaribe - Confiança	2:1
12.06.23	Confiança - Náutico Capibaribe	2:2
Brazilian Serie B
09.11.21	Confiança - Náutico Capibaribe	0:0
07.08.21	Náutico Capibaribe - Confiança	0:4
04.01.21	Confiança - Náutico Capibaribe	2:0
03.10.20	Náutico Capibaribe - Confiança	0:1
Brazilian Serie C
26.07.19	Náutico Capibaribe - Confiança	3:1

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