Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 31

Date: 2 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Neo Quimica Arena (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Lacerda D. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Mexico	Fanatiz
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Usa	Fanatiz


	Corinthians		Grêmio

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.7	5.5	Watch
	1.68	3.7	4.95
	1.81	3.49	4.58	Watch
	1.71	3.69	5.4	Watch
	1.76	3.6	4.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (1.8)	3.64 ↑ (3.5)	5.07 ↑ (4.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Corinthians
55.1%

Draw
26.1%

Grêmio
18.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.2%

26.9%

20.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.2%

26.4%

20.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Corinthians has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	29.2%	8.3%

Corinthians - Grêmio Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Corinthians will win (votes: 15 - 62.5%). Grêmio will win (votes: 2 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 29.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Corinthians: 43.1% – 81.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Corinthians (votes: 4 - 50%). Grêmio (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Grêmio (2.18) (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Corinthians (3.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Corinthians (votes: 6 - 46.2%). Grêmio (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hugo Souza (G) 2. Matheuzinho 47. Joao Pedro 13. Gustavo Henrique 26. Angileri F. 21. Matheus Bidu 7. Maycon (C) 19. Carrillo A. 8. Garro R. 9. Yuri Alberto 10. Depay M.	1. Tiago Volpi (G) 2. Joao Lucas 19. Noriega E. 3. Wagner Leonardo 23. Marlon 29. Arthur Melo (C) 17. Dodi 8. Edenilson 47. Alysson 95. Carlos Vinicius 9. Amuzu F.
Substitutes
5. Andre Ramalho 11. Angel Romero 25. Caca 35. Charles Rigon 61. Dieguinho 40. Felipe Longo (G) 56. Gui Negao 46. Hugo 31. Kayke 37. Ryan 43. Talles Magno 3. Torres F.	77. Andre Henrique 16. Aravena A. 15. Camilo Reijers 10. Cristaldo F. 6. Cuellar G. 53. Gustavo Martins 31. Jorge (G) 25. Lucas Esteves 11. Monsalve M. 99. Olivera C. 7. Pavon C. 4. Walter Kannemann
Coaches
Dorival Junior	Mano Menezes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', Carrillo A. 🟨,
16', 1 - 0, Gustavo Henrique ⚽, Garro R. (A),
45+4', Matheuzinho 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', Matheus Bidu 🟨,
64', Noriega E. 🟨,
67', Carrillo A. ↓, Ryan ↑,
67', Edenilson ↓, Cristaldo F. ↑,
67', Alysson ↓, Pavon C. ↑,
68', Dodi 🟨,
75', Amuzu F. ↓, Olivera C. ↑,
77', Yuri Alberto ↓, Gui Negao ↑,
80', 2 - 0, Depay M. (Pen),
81', Dodi ↓, Cuellar G. ↑,
81', Carlos Vinicius ↓, Andre Henrique ↑,
87', Matheuzinho ↓, Hugo ↑,
88', Maycon ↓, Charles Rigon ↑,
88', Garro R. ↓, Dieguinho ↑,
88', Pavon C. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Corinthians won 2.

Corinthians is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Grêmio has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Grêmio may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Corinthians is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Corinthians: Andre (Injury) Breno Bidon (Red Card) Hugo Souza (Inactive) Martinez J. (Yellow Cards) Raniele (Yellow Cards) Vitinho (Injury)

There will not play in Grêmio: Braithwaite M. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Fabian Balbuena (Ankle Injury) Joao Pedro (Muscle Injury) Rodrigo Ely (Knee Injury) Villasanti M. (Knee Injury) Willian (Leg Injury)

There are questionable in Grêmio: Marcos Rocha (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Corinthians won 6 matches, drew 11 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:14. (average 0.9:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Corinthians won 1 match, drew 8 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:9. (average 0.9:0.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Corinthians - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 52.24%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Corinthians
Brazilian Serie A
25.10.25	Vitória Salvador - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
18.10.25	Corinthians - Atlético Mineiro	1:0 ✺
15.10.25	Santos - Corinthians	3:1 ✺
04.10.25	Corinthians - Mirassol	3:0 ✺
01.10.25	Internacional RS - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WWLWT
- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Serie A
26.10.25	Grêmio - Juventude	3:1 ✺
19.10.25	Bahia - Grêmio	4:0 ✺
16.10.25	Grêmio - São Paulo	2:0 ✺
04.10.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Grêmio	1:0 ✺
01.10.25	Santos - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
12.06.25	Grêmio - Corinthians	1:1
08.12.24	Grêmio - Corinthians	0:3
Copa do Brasil
07.08.24	Grêmio - Corinthians	0:1 penalties
31.07.24	Corinthians - Grêmio	0:0
Brazilian Serie A
25.07.24	Corinthians - Grêmio	2:2
12.11.23	Grêmio - Corinthians	0:1
18.09.23	Corinthians - Grêmio	4:4

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