Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 6

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Urbano Caldeira (Santos)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
Israel	Sport 3
Mexico	Azteca Deportes
Spain	Movistar Plus+
United-kingdom	Premier Sports Player
World	Onefootball


	Santos		Corinthians

	1	X	2
	2.57	3	3	Watch
	2.58	2.98	2.92
	2.66	3.09	3.05
	2.59	3.03	3.02	Watch
	2.5	2.88	2.9
	2.67	3.05	3.05	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↑ (2.26)	3.01 ↓ (3.12)	2.99 ↓ (3.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santos
36.6%

Draw
31.6%

Corinthians
31.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.9%

29.6%

29.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42%

30.4%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Corinthians has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santos than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Santos, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	57.1%	14.3%

Santos - Corinthians Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Santos will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Corinthians will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Corinthians (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Corinthians (3.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Corinthians (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 98. Frias A. 2. Ze Ivaldo 14. Luan Peres 11. Rony 48. Gustavo Henrique 28. Oliva C. 49. Gabriel Bontempo 22. Barreal A. 9. Gabriel Barbosa 10. Neymar (C)	1. Hugo Souza (G) 2. Matheuzinho 3. Gabriel Paulista 13. Gustavo Henrique (C) 21. Matheus Bidu 14. Raniele 19. Carrillo A. 49. Andre 7. Breno Bidon 37. Kaio Cesar 10. Depay M.
Substitutes
19. Diaz L. 1. Diogenes (G) 31. Escobar G. 25. Gabriel Menino 18. Igor Vinicius 5. Joao Schmidt 4. Lucas Verissimo 21. Moises 32. Rollheiser B. 16. Thaciano 3. Vinicius Lira 15. Willian Arao	29. Allan 5. Andre Ramalho 26. Angileri F. 35. Charles Rigon 8. Garro R. 56. Gui Negao 51. Kaue (G) 31. Kayke 20. Milans P. 18. Pedro Raul 23. Pereira M. 11. Vitinho
Coaches
Vojvoda J.	Dorival Junior

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', Kaio Cesar 🟨,
18', 0 - 1, Depay M. ⚽, Kaio Cesar (A),
21', 1 - 1, Gabriel Barbosa ⚽, Neymar (A),
23', Barreal A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Rony 🟨,
62', Andre ↓, Kayke ↑,
62', Kaio Cesar ↓, Garro R. ↑,
65', Gabriel Bontempo ↓, Willian Arao ↑,
72', Barreal A. ↓, Vinicius Lira ↑,
72', Gabriel Barbosa ↓, Thaciano ↑,
78', Oliva C. ↓, Gabriel Menino ↑,
78', Gustavo Henrique ↓, Rollheiser B. ↑,
79', Carrillo A. ↓, Allan ↑,
85', Rollheiser B. 🟨,
85', Luan Peres 🟨,
87', Luan Peres 🟨,
90', Raniele ↓, Pedro Raul ↑,
90+5', Gustavo Henrique 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 14 and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santos won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Recently, Corinthians has had a series of away games.

Santos might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Santos: Ze Rafael (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Corinthians: Felipe Longo (Inactive) Hugo (Injury) Kaio Cesar (Injury) Pereira M. (Injury)

There are questionable in Santos: Luan Peres (Injury)

There are questionable in Corinthians: Yuri Alberto (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Santos won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 15:25. (average 0.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Santos won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 0.9:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Santos	29	11	9	9	45:43	2	42
16	Corinthians	29	8	8	13	30:34	-4	32

Last Results with these Odds

Santos - the odds 2.26 are the expected chance of winning is 40.91%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Corinthians - the odds 3.13 are the expected chance of winning is 29.47%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santos FC
Brazilian Serie A
10.03.26	Mirassol - Santos	2:2 ✺
26.02.26	Santos - Vasco da Gama	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
22.02.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Santos	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	Santos - Velo Clube	7:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.02.26	Athletico Paranaense - Santos	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TWLWL
- Corinthians
Brazilian Serie A
11.03.26	Corinthians - Coritiba	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
28.02.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Corinthians	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.02.26	Cruzeiro - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
22.02.26	Portuguesa - Corinthians	1:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
19.02.26	Athletico Paranaense - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
22.01.26	Santos - Corinthians	1:1
Brazilian Serie A
15.10.25	Santos - Corinthians	3:1
18.05.25	Corinthians - Santos	1:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
09.03.25	Corinthians - Santos	2:1
12.02.25	Corinthians - Santos	2:1
07.02.24	Santos - Corinthians	1:0
Brazilian Serie A
29.10.23	Corinthians - Santos	1:1

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