The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Cruzeiro 54.7%
Draw 25%
Athletico Paranaense 20.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
49.1%
27.9%
23%
Our Initial ML Estimation
48.7%
27.7%
23.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Cruzeiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cruzeiro's performance.
Athletico Paranaense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (-6%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cruzeiro that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+2.9%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
77.8%
22.2%
0%
Cruzeiro - Athletico Paranaense Predictions
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Cruzeiro will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Confidence interval (95%) for Cruzeiro: 50.6% – 100%.
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
O/U 2.5 - over (1.86) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
81. Otavio Costa (G) 23. Fagner 15. Fabricio Bruno 43. Joao Marcelo 27. Rojas G. 29. Romero L. (C) 8. Gerson 99. Arroyo K. 10. Matheus Pereira 7. Matheus Henrique 19. Kaio Jorge
1. Mycael (G) 25. Dantas 33. Aguirre F. 4. Arthur Dias 12. Gilberto 16. Jadson 14. Luiz Gustavo (C) 7. Mendoza S. 21. Leozinho 8. Joao Cruz 9. Viveros K.
Substitutes
9. Bruno Rodrigues 1. Cassio (G) 67. Costa J. 38. Felipe Morais 2. Kaua Moraes 70. Kenji 16. Lucas Silva 97. Rodriguez L. 25. Villalba L. 20. Wesley 12. William Furtado 5. Ze Lucas
18. Calderon Vargas K. A. 53. Dudu Kogitzki 37. Esquivel L. 5. Felipinho 2. Gilberto Junior 3. Leo 27. Portilla J. 70. Renan Peixoto 19. Rivaldo J. 23. Santos (G) 22. Teran C. 10. Zapelli B.
Coaches
Artur Jorge
Hellmann O.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
30', 1 - 0, Matheus Pereira ⚽, Gerson (A),
33', Rojas G. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 1, Joao Cruz ⚽,
45+8', Matheus Pereira (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Rojas G. ↓, Villalba L. ↑,
46', Arthur Dias ↓, Esquivel L. ↑,
46', Jadson ↓, Portilla J. ↑,
62', Aguirre F. 🟨,
64', Fabricio Bruno 🟨,
65', Leozinho ↓, Calderon Vargas K. A. ↑,
65', Joao Cruz ↓, Zapelli B. ↑,
70', Arroyo K. ↓, Wesley ↑,
71', 2 - 1, Romero L. ⚽, Matheus Pereira (A),
79', Mycael 🟨,
81', Viveros K. ↓, Renan Peixoto ↑,
82', 3 - 1, Kaio Jorge (Penalty Awarded),
87', Gerson ↓, Costa J. ↑,
90+2', Kaio Jorge ↓, Rodriguez L. ↑,
90+2', Matheus Henrique ↓, Ze Lucas ↑,
Preview
The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cruzeiro won 1.
Cruzeiro has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Athletico PR has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Cruzeiro may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, Cruzeiro is the team to beat.
There will not play in Cruzeiro: Gabriel Pec
(Broken Leg)
Sinisterra L.
(Muscle Injury)
There will not play in Athletico PR: Benavidez G.
(Yellow Cards)
Claudinho
(Muscle Injury)
Esquivel L.
(Ankle Injury)
Leo Derik
(Thigh Injury)
There are questionable in Cruzeiro: Bruno Rodrigues
(Inactive)
Jonathan Jesus
(Injury)
There are questionable in Athletico PR: Gilberto
(Ankle Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cruzeiro won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 26:25. (average 1.3:1.3).
Including home matches between the teams, Cruzeiro won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:9. (average 1.3:0.9).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
3
Athletico-PR
28
14
7
7
43:32
11
49
6
Cruzeiro
28
13
6
9
42:40
2
45
Last Results with these Odds
Athletico Paranaense - the odds 4.06 are the expected chance of winning is 22.97%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.
Austria
Bosnia-and-herzegovina
Ecuador
Germany
Serbia
Usa
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Otavio Costa (G) 
Rojas G. 
Arroyo K. 
Aguirre F. 
Costa J. 
Rodriguez L. 
