Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie A - Round 25

Date: 1 September 2024, Sunday

Location: Ligga Arena (Curitiba)

Referee: Machado B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belarus	Belarus 5
Brazil	Claro TV+, Furacão Play, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Chile	MEGOGO
Indonesia	Mola TV
Peru	L1 Play
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, MATCH! Futbol 3, Sportbox.ru
Spain	Gol Stadium
Ukraine	Sport 1, Sport 3
World	Amazon Prime Video, Fanatiz, Sport 1 Baltic


	Athletico Paranaense		Palmeiras

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.4	2.25	Watch
	3.1	3.3	2.3
	3.2	3.3	2.25
	2.96	3.31	2.42
	3.31	3.36	2.3	Watch
	3.2	3.25	2.2
	3.25	3.4	2.23	Watch
	3.2	3.3	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.18 ↑ (2.63)	3.33 ↓ (3.4)	2.28 ↓ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletico Paranaense
29.8%

Draw
28.5%

Palmeiras
41.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.7%

27.6%

36.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.2%

28%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletico Paranaense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Athletico Paranaense's form might have worsened.

Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Athletico Paranaense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.2%	18.7%	75%

Athletico Paranaense - Palmeiras Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Athletico PR will win (votes: 1 - 6.7%). Palmeiras will win (votes: 11 - 73.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 50.9% – 95.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Mycael (G) 4. Kaique Rocha 15. Gamarra M. 37. Esquivel L. 26. Erick (C) 3. Gabriel 88. Christian 10. Zapelli B. 28. Cuello 9. Gonzalo Mastriani 14. Canobbio A.	21. Weverton (G) 2. Marcos Rocha 15. Gustavo Gomez (C) 26. Murilo 16. Caio Paulista 5. Moreno A. 27. Rios R. 18. Mauricio 9. Felipe Anderson 41. Estevao 42. Flaco Lopez
Substitutes
7. Di Yorio L. 53. Dudu Kogitzki 23. Felipinho 29. Godoy L. 57. Joao Cruz 20. Julimar 45. Lucas Belezi 22. Madson 11. Nikao 8. Praxedes 42. Soares M. (G) 30. Ze Vitor	7. Dudu 35. Fabinho 4. Giay A. 17. Lazaro 57. Luighi 1. Mateus Oliveira (G) 34. Naves 23. Raphael Veiga 20. Romulo 10. Rony 6. Vanderlan 8. Ze Rafael
Coaches
Varini M.	Ferreira A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Mauricio ⚽, Flaco Lopez (A),
31', Christian 🟨,
45+1', Canobbio A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Gonzalo Mastriani ↓, Di Yorio L. ↑,
46', Erick ↓, Godoy L. ↑,
48', Marcos Rocha 🟨,
58', 0 - 2, Estevao ⚽, Rios R. (A),
58', Cuello ↓, Julimar ↑,
65', Caio Paulista ↓, Vanderlan ↑,
66', Flaco Lopez ↓, Rony ↑,
69', Zapelli B. ↓, Joao Cruz ↑,
71', Rios R. ↓, Fabinho ↑,
78', Mauricio ↓, Raphael Veiga ↑,
78', Estevao ↓, Giay A. ↑,
81', Christian ↓, Nikao ↑,

Preview

Enjoy watching a meeting between a mid-table team and a leading team (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Athletico PR won 1.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Athletico PR could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

There will not play in Athletico PR: Vinicius Kaue (Injury)

There will not play in Palmeiras: Bruno Rodrigues (Injury) Dudu (Injury) Piquerez J. (Injury)

Last 20 head-to-head matches Athletico PR won 5 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 10 matches and goals 19-26.

Including matches at home between the teams Athletico PR won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 11-13.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletico Paranaense
Copa do Brasil
29.08.24	Vasco da Gama - Athletico Paranaense	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.08.24	Vasco da Gama - Athletico Paranaense	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
22.08.24	Belgrano - Athletico Paranaense	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
18.08.24	Athletico Paranaense - Juventude	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
15.08.24	Athletico Paranaense - Belgrano	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LLWLW
- Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A
24.08.24	Palmeiras - Cuiabá	5:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
21.08.24	Palmeiras - Botafogo RJ	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
18.08.24	Palmeiras - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.08.24	Botafogo RJ - Palmeiras	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.08.24	Flamengo - Palmeiras	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
12.05.24	Palmeiras - Athletico Paranaense	0:2
04.11.23	Palmeiras - Athletico Paranaense	1:0
02.07.23	Athletico Paranaense - Palmeiras	2:2
25.10.22	Athletico Paranaense - Palmeiras	1:3
Copa Libertadores
06.09.22	Palmeiras - Athletico Paranaense	2:2
30.08.22	Athletico Paranaense - Palmeiras	1:0
Brazilian Serie A
02.07.22	Palmeiras - Athletico Paranaense	0:2

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