Match Info

Serie A - Round 31

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Arena da Baixada (Curitiba) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Zanovelli P. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Brazil	19:30	Amazon Prime Video
Ecuador	17:30	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Israel	01:30	Sport 2
Kosovo	00:30	Arena Premium 1
North Macedonia	00:30	Arena Premium 1
Portugal	23:30	Canal 11
Russia	01:30	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	00:30	Arena Premium 1
Turkey	01:30	Spor Smart 1
Usa	18:30	Fanatiz


	Athletico Paranaense		Palmeiras

	1	X	2
	3.20	3.40	2.20	Watch
	3.00	3.40	2.30
	3.05	3.25	2.28	Watch
	3.30	3.49	2.31
	2.89	3.45	2.43	Watch
	3.10	3.40	2.30
	3.44	3.43	2.18	Watch
	3.00	3.35	2.30
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.12 ↓ (3.15)	3.4 ↑ (3.25)	2.29 ↑ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletico Paranaense
30.4%

Draw
28%

Palmeiras
41.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

29.7%

28.8%

41.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.8%

27.9%

42.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

The chances for Palmeiras have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	33.3%	50%

Athletico Paranaense - Palmeiras Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Athletico PR will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Palmeiras will win (votes: 3 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Athletico PR (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (1.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletico PR (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mycael (G) 4. Arthur Dias 33. Aguirre F. 14. Luiz Gustavo (C) 12. Gilberto 16. Jadson 5. Felipinho 7. Mendoza S. 21. Leozinho 8. Joao Cruz 9. Viveros K.	1. Carlos Miguel (G) 3. Bruno Fuchs 26. Murilo 2. Barboza A. 12. Khellven 30. Lucas Evangelista 8. Andreas Pereira 22. Piquerez J. (C) 18. Mauricio 19. Sosa R. 42. Lopez J.
Substitutes
55. Bruno Baldini 47. Chiqueti 26. Claudinho 63. Diogo Riquelme 53. Dudu Kogitzki 3. Leo 39. Leonardo Cerci 27. Portilla J. 70. Renan Peixoto 19. Rivaldo J. 23. Santos (G) 10. Zapelli B.	11. Arias J. 56. Arthur Gabriel 43. Benedetti 21. Bruno Bertinato (G) 45. Erick Bele 7. Felipe Anderson 48. Larson 50. Luis Pacheco 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 17. Marlon Freitas 32. Martinez E. 10. Paulinho
Coaches
Hellmann O.	Abel Ferreira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
6', 0 - 1, Mauricio ⚽, Lopez J. (A),
9', Gilberto 🟨,
10', 0 - 2, Piquerez J. ⚽,
23', Andreas Pereira 🟨,
36', Piquerez J. 🟨,
43', Andreas Pereira 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Mauricio ↓, Marlon Freitas ↑,
46', Joao Cruz ↓, Rivaldo J. ↑,
46', Felipinho ↓, Claudinho ↑,
52', Claudinho ↓, Zapelli B. ↑,
57', Leozinho 🟨,
65', Lopez J. ↓, Arias J. ↑,
67', Gilberto ↓, Chiqueti ↑,
72', Lucas Evangelista ↓, Martinez E. ↑,
72', Sosa R. ↓, Arthur Gabriel ↑,
87', Leozinho ↓, Dudu Kogitzki ↑,
90', Bruno Fuchs ↓, Benedetti ↑,

Preview

A high-stakes showdown between two teams from the upper tier of the standings (ranked 3rd in the Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 2nd in the Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletico PR won 1.

In recent outings, Athletico PR has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Palmeiras is in superb form heading into this trip (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Palmeiras may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

Confirmed absences for Athletico PR: Benavidez G. (Muscle Injury) Calderon Vargas K. A. (Inactive) Dantas (Inactive) Teran C. (Inactive).

Confirmed absences for Palmeiras: Giay A. (Yellow Cards) Gomez G. (Yellow Cards) Jefte (Knee Injury) Vitor Roque (Inactive).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Athletico PR has recorded 4 wins, 5 draws, and 11 losses, with a goal aggregate of 18:28 (averaging 0.9:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Athletico PR against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, with 11:14 goals (averaging 1.1:1.4 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Palmeiras	32	20	9	3	56:22	34	69
4	Athletico-PR	32	15	9	8	50:38	12	54

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Palmeiras: 39.01% Athletico-PR: 0.16%

Last Results with these Odds

Athletico Paranaense - the odds 3.15 are the expected chance of winning is 29.68%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie A
12.10.26	Chapecoense - Athletico Paranaense	1:4 ✺
08.10.26	Athletico Paranaense - Atlético Mineiro	2:2 ✺
20.09.26	Athletico Paranaense - Bahia	2:1 ✺
11.09.26	Coritiba - Athletico Paranaense	3:3 ✺
06.09.26	Cruzeiro - Athletico Paranaense	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WTWTL
- Palmeiras
Copa Libertadores
14.10.26	Fluminense - Palmeiras	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.10.26	Palmeiras - Corinthians	4:1 ✺
08.10.26	Palmeiras - Bahia	1:0 ✺
20.09.26	Grêmio - Palmeiras	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
16.09.26	LDU Quito - Palmeiras	3:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
19.04.26	Palmeiras - Athletico Paranaense	1:0
01.09.24	Athletico Paranaense - Palmeiras	0:2
12.05.24	Palmeiras - Athletico Paranaense	0:2
04.11.23	Palmeiras - Athletico Paranaense	1:0
02.07.23	Athletico Paranaense - Palmeiras	2:2
25.10.22	Athletico Paranaense - Palmeiras	1:3
Copa Libertadores
06.09.22	Palmeiras - Athletico Paranaense	2:2

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