Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 3

Date: 3 May 2024, Friday

Location: Estádio Couto Pereira (Curitiba)

Referee: Dias Araujo V. G. (Bra)


	Coritiba		Sport Recife

	1	X	2
	2.25	3	3.1
	2.35	3.1	3.1
	2.39	2.99	3.49
	2.25	3.1	3.2
	2.25	3.18	3.27
	2.31	2.95	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↑ (2.07)	3.05 ↓ (3.28)	3.24 ↓ (3.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Coritiba
40.6%

Draw
30.6%

Sport Recife
28.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.4%

28.6%

26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.2%

30.4%

24.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Coritiba has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Sport Recife has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Coritiba than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Coritiba, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	57.1%	28.6%

Coritiba - Sport Recife Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Coritiba will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Recife will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
72. Pedro Morisco (G) 16. Natanael 5. Mauricio Antonio (C) 26. Bruno Melo 83. Jamerson 23. Bernardo 40. Everton Morelli 19. Gomez S. 10. Matheus Frizzo 9. Leandro Damiao 22. Figueiredo	22. Caique Franca (G) 54. Pedro Lima 15. Rafael Thyere (C) 40. Luciano Castan 6. Felipinho 94. Felipe 8. Dominguez F. 19. Lucas Lima 30. Chrystian Barletta 9. Gustavo Coutinho 11. Romarinho
Substitutes
7. Andrey 67. Benassi (G) 4. Benevenuto 21. Brandao 33. David 2. Diogo Batista 38. Geovane Meurer 47. Jean Pedroso 98. Lucas Ronier 6. Rodrigo Gelado 57. Wesley Pomba 17. Yago Ferreira	12. Alisson Cassiano 44. Chico 7. Fabinho 47. Fabio Matheus 59. Ortiz C. 27. Pablo Dyego 17. Pedro Vilhena 28. Rosales R. 10. Ruiz A. 21. Thiago Couto (G) 14. Vinicius Faria
Coaches
Guto Ferreira	Soso M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
18', Pedro Lima 🟨,
21', 0 - 1, Gustavo Coutinho ⚽, Lucas Lima (A),
29', Bernardo ↓, Lucas Ronier ↑,
36', Caique Franca 🟨,
45+2', Felipinho 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Jamerson ↓, Rodrigo Gelado ↑,
46', Figueiredo ↓, Wesley Pomba ↑,
46', Romarinho ↓, Ruiz A. ↑,
46', Pedro Lima ↓, Rosales R. ↑,
49', Wesley Pomba 🟨,
54', Gustavo Coutinho 🟨,
68', Chrystian Barletta ↓, Chico ↑,
69', Lucas Lima ↓, Vinicius Faria ↑,
69', Gomez S. ↓, Geovane Meurer ↑,
75', Gustavo Coutinho ↓, Fabio Matheus ↑,
75', Everton Morelli ↓, Brandao ↑,
78', Natanael 🟨,
87', Dominguez F. 🟨,
90+4', Luciano Castan 🟨,
90+7', Bruno Melo 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Coritiba won 1.

Recent matches Coritiba is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Sport Recife is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Coritiba could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Coritiba will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 16 head-to-head matches Coritiba won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 15-22.

Including matches at home between the teams Coritiba won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 9-12.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Coritiba
Brazilian Serie B
28.04.24	Coritiba - Brusque	1:0 ✺
21.04.24	Ponte Preta - Coritiba	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
24.03.24	Coritiba - Maringá	0:0 ✺
17.03.24	Maringá - Coritiba	2:0 ✺
09.03.24	Coritiba - Cianorte	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WTTLW
- Sport Recife
Copa do Brasil
30.04.24	Atlético Mineiro - Sport Recife	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
26.04.24	Sport Recife - Vila Nova	2:0 ✺
20.04.24	Amazonas - Sport Recife	2:3 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
10.04.24	Sport Recife - Ceará	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
06.04.24	Sport Recife - Náutico Capibaribe	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Copa do Brasil
26.04.23	Sport Recife - Coritiba	2:0
12.04.23	Coritiba - Sport Recife	3:3
Brazilian Serie A
13.12.20	Sport Recife - Coritiba	1:0
30.08.20	Coritiba - Sport Recife	1:0
Brazilian Serie B
04.11.19	Coritiba - Sport Recife	0:0
01.08.19	Sport Recife - Coritiba	1:1
Brazilian Serie A
29.10.17	Sport Recife - Coritiba	3:4

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