Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Round 15

Date: 17 April 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Marte R. Gómez (Ciudad Victoria)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Correcaminos UAT		Alebrijes de Oaxaca

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.72	3.9	3.85
	1.76	4.26	4.22
	1.86	3.6	3.98	Watch
	1.75	3.5	3.9
	1.76	3.42	4.18	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↓ (2.03)	3.74 ↑ (3.53)	4.03 ↑ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Correcaminos UAT
52.3%

Draw
24.8%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca
23%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46%

26.5%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.6%

25.6%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Correcaminos UAT has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Correcaminos UAT's performance.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Correcaminos UAT than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alebrijes de Oaxaca than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Correcaminos UAT - Alebrijes de Oaxaca Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Resendez E. (G) 19. Catalan A. 22. Di Pippa A. 20. Estopier J. 13. Moreno G. (C) 2. Ortega W. 29. Pineda D. 32. Sandoval T. 14. Sosa C. 25. Torres E. 11. Uribe H.	35. Gonzalez Arriaga O. A. (G) 4. Alvarez K. (C) 6. Arellano A. 13. Barreda I. 10. Cruz J. 5. Esqueda Romero J. A. 19. Fadika B. 3. Justo A. 8. Morales F. 12. Tamay A. 16. Zetuna Y.
Substitutes
106. Aguilar S. 104. Arce R. 1. Castellanos R. (G) 7. Cisneros D. 9. Delgadillo Y. 23. Galindo J. 28. Lopez M. 6. Martinez J. 112. Mata J. 3. Rubio R.	132. Ascencio E. 20. Ayala D. 21. Franco J. 23. Hernandez A. 15. Lopez E. 11. Mascorro H. 1. Rodas C. (G) 2. Vazquez Garza H. A. 14. Vazquez Hernandez A.
Coaches
Diaz G.	Hernandez E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
13', 1 - 0, Catalan A. ⚽,
23', 1 - 1, Barreda I. ⚽,
29', Barreda I. 🟨,
31', Pineda D. 🟨,
36', Zetuna Y. 🟨,
37', 1 - 2, Cruz J. ⚽, Barreda I. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Tamay A. ↓, Mascorro H. ↑,
46', Zetuna Y. ↓, Vazquez Hernandez A. ↑,
54', Pineda D. ↓, Cisneros D. ↑,
57', Esqueda Romero J. A. 🟨,
58', Di Pippa A. 🟨,
64', Torres E. 🟨,
69', Uribe H. ↓, Galindo J. ↑,
69', Sosa C. ↓, Mata J. ↑,
69', Morales F. ↓, Ascencio E. ↑,
75', Ascencio E. 🟨,
81', Catalan A. ↓, Arce R. ↑,
82', Estopier J. ↓, Lopez M. ↑,
87', Lopez M. 🟨,
88', Cruz J. ↓, Vazquez Garza H. A. ↑,
90', 1 - 3, Fadika B. (Penalty Awarded),
90+3', Sandoval T. 🟥,
90+5', Fadika B. ↓, Hernandez S. ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 13 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Correcaminos won 2.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Correcaminos will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Correcaminos won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 25:31. (average 1.3:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Correcaminos won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 18:15. (average 1.8:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Correcaminos	11	4	4	3	19:18	1	16
14	Alebrijes Oaxaca	11	3	1	7	8:22	-14	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Correcaminos UAT
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
12.04.26	Mineros de Zacatecas - Correcaminos UAT	3:1 ✺
03.04.26	Correcaminos UAT - Cancún	1:3 ✺
28.03.26	Dorados - Correcaminos UAT	2:1 ✺
18.03.26	Jaiba Brava - Correcaminos UAT	3:1 ✺
13.03.26	Correcaminos UAT - Irapuato	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LLLLW
- Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
10.04.26	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Jaiba Brava	1:2 ✺
03.04.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	2:0 ✺
27.03.26	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Leones Negros UdeG	1:1 ✺
20.03.26	Atlético La Paz - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	4:0 ✺
13.03.26	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Tapatío	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
07.11.25	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Correcaminos UAT	1:1
28.02.25	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Correcaminos UAT	0:1
12.09.24	Correcaminos UAT - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	1:3
06.02.24	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Correcaminos UAT	1:0
29.08.23	Correcaminos UAT - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	7:0
24.02.23	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Correcaminos UAT	4:0
26.07.22	Correcaminos UAT - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	0:0

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