Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Round 12

Date: 27 March 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Tecnológico de Oaxaca (Oaxaca de Juárez)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 4
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Alebrijes de Oaxaca		Leones Negros UdeG

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.2	3.5	2.82
	2.44	3.46	2.84
	2.5	3.48	2.65
	2.3	3.1	2.7
	2.4	3.22	2.61	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↓ (2.52)	3.35 ↑ (3.26)	2.72 ↑ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alebrijes de Oaxaca
38.8%

Draw
27.4%

Leones Negros UdeG
33.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.5%

28.3%

35.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.4%

27.4%

36.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alebrijes de Oaxaca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Leones Negros UdeG has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alebrijes de Oaxaca than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leones Negros UdeG than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Leones Negros UdeG Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Alebrijes de Oaxaca will win (votes: 5 - 83.3%). Leones Negros UdeG will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rodas C. (G) 20. Ayala D. 13. Barreda I. 177. Bustos J. 33. Cortes J. (C) 23. Hernandez A. 3. Justo A. 11. Mascorro H. 8. Morales F. 22. Ochoa Sanchez J. A. 14. Vazquez Hernandez A.	25. Cantu Rodriguez O. M. (G) 24. Aguayo J. 9. Camacho Lastra R. E. 28. De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. 22. Gil O. 88. Gonzalez O. 34. Hernandez S. A. 82. Meza U. 18. Munoz D. 2. Sanchez J. (C) 12. Villa O.
Substitutes
6. Arellano A. 5. Esqueda Romero J. A. 19. Fadika B. 24. Garcia L. 35. Gonzalez Arriaga O. A. (G) 7. Lopez D. 15. Lopez E. 29. Meza S. 12. Tamay A. 2. Vazquez Garza H. A.	10. Brigido J. 6. Cisneros C. 83. Escalante J. 20. Flores B. 100. Morales F. 94. Padilla L. 11. Perez J. 87. Valenzuela M. 98. Venegas S. 14. Villalobos A.
Coaches
Hernandez E.	Sosa L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
16', 0 - 1, Munoz D. ⚽,
34', Munoz D. 🟨,
45+2', Aguayo J. ↓, Flores B. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Bustos J. ↓, Vazquez Garza H. A. ↑,
46', Vazquez Hernandez A. ↓, Meza S. ↑,
65', Ochoa Sanchez J. A. ↓, Tamay A. ↑,
65', Hernandez A. ↓, Fadika B. ↑,
68', Camacho Lastra R. E. ↓, Brigido J. ↑,
68', Gil O. ↓, Valenzuela M. ↑,
72', Morales F. ↓, Lopez E. ↑,
78', 1 - 1, Meza S. ⚽,
90+2', Flores B. 🟨,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 12 and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alebrijes de Oaxaca won 1.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Leones Negros UdeG has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Alebrijes de Oaxaca is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Alebrijes de Oaxaca won 3 matches, drew 12 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 20:27. (average 1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Alebrijes de Oaxaca won 2 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:13. (average 1.2:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Leones Negros	11	7	2	2	27:16	11	23
14	Alebrijes Oaxaca	11	3	1	7	8:22	-14	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
20.03.26	Atlético La Paz - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	4:0 ✺
13.03.26	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Tapatío	4:3 ✺
07.03.26	Irapuato - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	6:2 ✺
27.02.26	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Dorados	3:2 ✺
21.02.26	Atlante - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LWLWL
- Leones Negros UdeG
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
22.03.26	Leones Negros UdeG - Mineros de Zacatecas	1:3 ✺
14.03.26	Dorados - Leones Negros UdeG	1:1 ✺
04.03.26	Atlético La Paz - Leones Negros UdeG	3:0 ✺
01.03.26	Leones Negros UdeG - Atlante	1:1 ✺
15.02.26	Leones Negros UdeG - Tepatitlán de Morelos	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LTLTT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
17.10.25	Leones Negros UdeG - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	0:1
16.03.25	Leones Negros UdeG - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	3:2
29.09.24	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Leones Negros UdeG	2:2
14.02.24	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Leones Negros UdeG	0:3
03.08.23	Leones Negros UdeG - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	5:0
15.03.23	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Leones Negros UdeG	2:2
25.06.22	Leones Negros UdeG - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	0:0

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