Match Info

Serie D - Group D - Round 21

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday


	Correggese		Desenzano Calvina

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.2	1.9
	3.96	3.3	1.86	Watch
	3.99	3.22	1.85
	4	3.14	1.87
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.91 ↑ (3.3)	3.22 ↑ (3.15)	1.87 ↓ (2.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Correggese
23.2%

Draw
28.2%

Desenzano Calvina
48.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.6%

28.9%

43.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27%

28.2%

44.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Correggese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Desenzano Calvina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Desenzano Calvina's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Correggese than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Desenzano Calvina than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Correggese - Desenzano Calvina Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Desenzano (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Motti F. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
57', 1 - 1, ⚽,
61', 1 - 2, ⚽,
88', 🟥,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 14 in the zone Serie D ~ Group D (Play Out: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group D (Play Offs: )).

Recent form of Correggese has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Desenzano is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Desenzano could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Correggese won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Correggese won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Correggese	6	3	1	2	7:9	-2	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Correggese Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group D
18.01.26	Rovato Vertovese - Correggese	2:0 ✺
11.01.26	Correggese - Tropical Coriano	1:0 ✺
04.01.26	Cittadella Vis Modena - Correggese	2:0 ✺
21.12.25	Pro Sesto - Correggese	1:0 ✺
14.12.25	Correggese - Crema	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LWLLT
- Desenzano Calvina
Italian Serie D - Group D
18.01.26	Desenzano Calvina - Tuttocuoio	3:0 ✺
11.01.26	Pro Palazzolo - Desenzano Calvina	0:2 ✺
04.01.26	Desenzano Calvina - Piacenza	1:0 ✺
21.12.25	Desenzano Calvina - Sangiuliano City Nova	0:1 ✺
14.12.25	Pistoiese - Desenzano Calvina	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group D
24.09.25	Desenzano Calvina - Correggese	2:2
23.02.20	Correggese - Desenzano Calvina	0:1

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