Match Info

Serie D - Group D - Round 18

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday


	Desenzano Calvina		Piacenza

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.2	2.55
	2.42	3.25	2.58
	2.46	3.32	2.6	Watch
	2.42	3.22	2.57
	2.45	3.25	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 (2.43)	3.25 ↓ (3.28)	2.58 ↓ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Desenzano Calvina
37.2%

Draw
27.8%

Piacenza
35%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.3%

27.7%

35%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.3%

28.4%

34.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Desenzano Calvina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

The chances for Piacenza have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Desenzano Calvina than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Piacenza than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Desenzano Calvina - Piacenza Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, Procaccio A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group D (Play Offs: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group D (Play Offs: )).

Desenzano is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Piacenza is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Piacenza may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Desenzano won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Desenzano won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Desenzano Calvina
Italian Serie D - Group D
21.12.25	Desenzano Calvina - Sangiuliano City Nova	0:1 ✺
14.12.25	Pistoiese - Desenzano Calvina	0:2 ✺
07.12.25	Desenzano Calvina - Imolese	4:3 ✺
30.11.25	Sasso Marconi - Desenzano Calvina	1:3 ✺
23.11.25	Desenzano Calvina - Rovato Vertovese	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LWWWW
- Piacenza Calcio 1919
Italian Serie D - Group D
20.12.25	Crema - Piacenza	2:3 ✺
14.12.25	Piacenza - Tropical Coriano	4:1 ✺
07.12.25	Pro Sesto - Piacenza	0:2 ✺
30.11.25	Piacenza - SantAngelo	2:0 ✺
23.11.25	Trevigliese - Piacenza	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group D
07.09.25	Piacenza - Desenzano Calvina	1:0
Italian Serie D - Group B
04.02.24	Piacenza - Desenzano Calvina	0:1
08.10.23	Desenzano Calvina - Piacenza	1:1

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