Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 4

Date: 14 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio José Santos Pinto (Covilhã)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Covilhã		Mafra

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.2	2.4
	2.58	3.15	2.45
	2.59	3.4	2.67
	7.14	1.27	6.63	Watch
	2.68	3.41	2.49	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.51 ↑ (3.29)	2.89 ↓ (3.28)	3.33 ↑ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Covilhã
30.6%

Draw
37.2%

Mafra
32.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.8%

27.9%

44.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Covilhã has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Mafra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mafra might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Covilhã - Mafra Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Pinto Galil L. G. (G) 2. Candido 24. Loureiro G. 33. Calegari A. 55. Garcia F. 22. Gomes Silva E. 19. Cruz F. 6. Barbosa A. 8. Coelho R. 79. Liberal A. 99. Niang C.	33. Silva P. (G) 90. Moreira R. 2. Camara M. 3. Alves K. 5. Beni D. 46. Sambu B. 6. Pinto R. 85. Neves L. 30. Ninte M. 35. Monteiro V. 9. Niang M.
Substitutes
26. Balsa C. 20. Ferreira R. 74. Igreja T. (G) 96. Jailson 28. Lontsi V. 10. Mica 13. Ribeiro P. 77. Silva M. 7. Watche T.	21. Djalo U. 66. Ferreira J. 8. Goncalves V. 19. Iheanacho S. 7. Matos R. 13. Raposo C. 99. Ribeiro L. (G) 23. Saldanha R. 4. Silva P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
49', Coelho R. 🟨,
61', Djalo U. ↓, Goncalves V. ↑,
63', Liberal A. ↓, Ferreira R. ↑,
64', Coelho R. ↓, Jailson ↑,
68', Cruz F. ↓, Watche T. ↑,
80', Ninte M. ↓, Raposo C. ↑,
88', Niang M. ↓, Matos R. ↑,
90+6', Garcia F. ↓, Mica ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 10 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: ) and 8 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Covilhã won 2.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Covilhã won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 21:18. (average 1.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Covilhã won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:6. (average 1.4:0.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Covilhã - the odds 3.29 are the expected chance of winning is 27.82%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Covilhã
Portuguese Liga 3
23.08.25	União de Santarém - Covilhã	1:1 ✺
16.08.25	Covilhã - 1 Dezembro	0:1 ✺
09.08.25	Caldas - Covilhã	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
25.07.25	Caldas - Covilhã	1:1 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
04.05.25	Covilhã - Caldas	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 TLLTT
- CD Mafra
Portuguese Liga 3
24.08.25	Mafra - Académica Coimbra	1:0 ✺
17.08.25	Lusitano GC - Mafra	4:1 ✺
09.08.25	Mafra - Belenenses	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
02.08.25	Mafra - Oriental	2:0 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
15.05.25	Mafra - Torreense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
24.04.23	Covilhã - Mafra	1:2
04.11.22	Mafra - Covilhã	3:2
19.03.22	Covilhã - Mafra	2:0
31.10.21	Mafra - Covilhã	1:1
Portuguese League Cup
01.08.21	Covilhã - Mafra	3:1
Portuguese Liga 2
24.04.21	Mafra - Covilhã	2:2
18.02.21	Covilhã - Mafra	2:2

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