Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 12

Date: 5 May 2024, Sunday

Location: Estádio José Santos Pinto (Covilhã)


	Covilhã		Alverca

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.2	2
	3.6	3.25	1.95
	3.65	3.43	2.06
	3.62	3.22	2.02
	3.25	3.3	1.99
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.46 ↓ (3.62)	3.28 ↓ (3.66)	2 ↑ (1.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Covilhã
26.4%

Draw
27.9%

Alverca
45.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.5%

25.3%

49.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25%

24.8%

50.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Covilhã has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Alverca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Covilhã than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Makaridze G. (G) 6. Moreira T. 3. Casagrande P. 13. Michel 24. Tomas N. 19. Joao Vasco 80. Renato Luis 21. Valente A. 82. Figueiredo B. 23. Pereira J. 99. Benedict E.	98. Joao Bravim (G) 33. Venaque 4. Oliveira A. 19. Silva R. 16. Pires M. 5. Ze Oliveira 25. Dias R. 90. Vitor Bruno 21. Harramiz S. 17. Costa J. 88. Martins D.
Substitutes
4. Adams M. 88. Borges M. 9. Chico Cardoso 2. Coelho V. 87. Ferreira R. 20. Gildo 71. Joao Goncalo (G) 7. Traquina 10. Ze Tiago	95. Da Silva J. L. 44. Gomes C. 28. Hachadi K. 22. Hidalgo N. (G) 18. Jesus P. 15. Lucas J. 8. Pinto G. 14. Varela J. 11. Vitinho

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', Harramiz S. 🟨,
21', Joao Vasco 🟨,
24', Renato Luis 🟨,
37', 0 - 1, Costa J. ⚽,
41', Pires M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Figueiredo B. ↓, Chico Cardoso ↑,
46', Pereira J. ↓, Ze Tiago ↑,
61', Joao Vasco ↓, Gildo ↑,
61', Harramiz S. ↓, Jesus P. ↑,
61', Silva R. ↓, Sagna P. ↑,
64', Casagrande P. 🟨,
72', Casagrande P. 🟨,
75', Renato Luis ↓, Coelho V. ↑,
75', Pires M. ↓, Pinto G. ↑,
84', Michel ↓, Traquina ↑,
87', Costa J. ↓, Lucas J. ↑,
87', Vitor Bruno ↓, Hachadi K. ↑,
90+5', 0 - 2, Jesus P. ⚽,
90+6', 🟨,

Preview

Watch a game between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a team which is a leader now (ranked 6 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal 2).

Recent matches Covilhã is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Alverca is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recently Alverca have a series of home games.

Alverca will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Covilhã won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Covilhã won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Covilhã
Portuguese Liga 3
28.04.24	Atlético CP - Covilhã	1:2 ✺
20.04.24	Covilhã - Braga B	1:2 ✺
14.04.24	Lusitânia - Covilhã	2:2 ✺
07.04.24	Covilhã - Académica Coimbra	1:1 ✺
30.03.24	Felgueiras - Covilhã	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WLTTL
- FC Alverca
Portuguese Liga 3
28.04.24	Alverca - Varzim	1:0 ✺
20.04.24	Alverca - Felgueiras	1:1 ✺
13.04.24	Atlético CP - Alverca	0:4 ✺
06.04.24	Alverca - Braga B	1:0 ✺
31.03.24	Alverca - Lusitânia	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
09.03.24	Alverca - Covilhã	1:0
16.12.23	Alverca - Covilhã	2:2
03.09.23	Covilhã - Alverca	1:2
Portuguese Liga 2
29.05.22	Covilhã - Alverca	2:0
21.05.22	Alverca - Covilhã	0:0

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