Match Info

Date: 26 February 2022, Saturday


	Covilhã		Casa Pia

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.3	1.72	Watch
	4.1	3.4	1.8
	4.4	3.3	1.75
	4.5	3.3	1.77
	5.33	3.43	1.79
	4.33	3.1	1.8
	4.65	3.46	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.58 ↑ (3.4)	3.33 ↑ (3.26)	1.77 ↓ (2.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Covilhã
20.1%

Draw
27.7%

Casa Pia
52.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.8%

27.9%

45.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.9%

21.8%

58.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Covilhã has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Covilhã's form might have worsened.

Casa Pia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Casa Pia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Covilhã than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Casa Pia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Covilhã - Casa Pia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal).

Covilhã is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Casa Pia in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Covilhã could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Casa Pia is a favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Covilhã won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Covilhã won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Covilhã
Portuguese Liga 2
20.02.22	Penafiel - Covilhã	1:1 ✺
13.02.22	Covilhã - Benfica B	1:2 ✺
07.02.22	Porto B - Covilhã	3:1 ✺
02.02.22	Rio Ave - Covilhã	3:1 ✺
30.01.22	Covilhã - Vilafranquense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 TLLLT
- Casa Pia
Portuguese Liga 2
19.02.22	Casa Pia - Nacional	1:0 ✺
11.02.22	Casa Pia - Trofense	1:0 ✺
04.02.22	Benfica B - Casa Pia	1:1 ✺
31.01.22	Casa Pia - Penafiel	2:0 ✺
23.01.22	Porto B - Casa Pia	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
03.10.21	Casa Pia - Covilhã	4:0
28.03.21	Covilhã - Casa Pia	0:0
07.11.20	Casa Pia - Covilhã	0:1
05.01.20	Casa Pia - Covilhã	1:4

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