Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 21

Date: 18 February 2023, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril (Penafiel)

Referee: Brazao M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Penafiel		Covilhã

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.4	5	Watch
	1.66	3.3	4.75
	1.61	3.5	5.1
	1.72	3.67	5.44
	1.62	3.3	5.25
	1.68	3.55	5.05
	1.7	3.4	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↑ (1.49)	3.45 ↓ (3.6)	5.04 ↓ (6.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Penafiel
55.2%

Draw
26.6%

Covilhã
18.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.7%

25.1%

14.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.1%

24.1%

13.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Penafiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Penafiel's form might have worsened.

Covilhã has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Penafiel, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Covilhã than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	0%	80%

Penafiel - Covilhã Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Penafiel will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Covilhã will win (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 9 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Penafiel won 3.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

In this match Penafiel is a favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Penafiel won 7 matches, drawn 9 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 19-16.

Including matches at home between the teams Penafiel won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 7-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
13.02.23	BSAD - Penafiel	2:2 ✺
05.02.23	Penafiel - Mafra	1:0 ✺
29.01.23	Leixões - Penafiel	2:1 ✺
22.01.23	Estrela da Amadora - Penafiel	3:0 ✺
14.01.23	Penafiel - Torreense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TWLLT
- Sporting Covilhã
Portuguese Liga 2
11.02.23	Covilhã - Tondela	1:0 ✺
06.02.23	Feirense - Covilhã	0:2 ✺
29.01.23	Covilhã - Porto B	1:2 ✺
22.01.23	Covilhã - Moreirense	0:0 ✺
14.01.23	Trofense - Covilhã	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.3 WWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
27.08.22	Covilhã - Penafiel	0:2
20.02.22	Penafiel - Covilhã	1:1
17.09.21	Covilhã - Penafiel	0:0
11.03.21	Covilhã - Penafiel	0:2
14.09.20	Penafiel - Covilhã	1:0
02.11.19	Covilhã - Penafiel	0:0
23.02.19	Penafiel - Covilhã	0:0

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