Match Info

Date: 31 January 2022, Monday


	Casa Pia		Penafiel

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.2	3.5	Watch
	1.98	3.1	3.8
	1.95	3.05	3.85
	2.02	3.1	3.85
	2.06	3.25	4.17
	2	3	3.6
	1.99	3.3	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↑ (1.67)	3.14 ↓ (3.43)	3.78 ↓ (4.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Casa Pia
46.3%

Draw
29.3%

Penafiel
24.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.9%

26.7%

18.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.8%

21.6%

14.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Casa Pia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Casa Pia's form might have worsened.

Penafiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Penafiel's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (+21.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Casa Pia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Penafiel, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Casa Pia - Penafiel Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Watch a battle-game between leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal and 9).

Recent matches Casa Pia is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Penafiel is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Casa Pia will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Casa Pia won 0 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 6-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Casa Pia won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Casa Pia
Portuguese Liga 2
23.01.22	Porto B - Casa Pia	0:3 ✺
15.01.22	Casa Pia - Académico de Viseu	0:1 ✺
09.01.22	Casa Pia - Leixões	1:0 ✺
03.01.22	Vilafranquense - Casa Pia	0:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
22.12.21	Casa Pia - Sporting Lisbon	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WLWWL
- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
23.01.22	Benfica B - Penafiel	1:0 ✺
15.01.22	Penafiel - Vilafranquense	4:3 ✺
08.01.22	Penafiel - Académico de Viseu	0:0 ✺
23.12.21	Porto B - Penafiel	3:1 ✺
19.12.21	Penafiel - Estrela da Amadora	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
21.08.21	Penafiel - Casa Pia	1:0
22.03.21	Penafiel - Casa Pia	1:1
01.11.20	Casa Pia - Penafiel	3:3
01.02.20	Penafiel - Casa Pia	1:1
17.08.19	Casa Pia - Penafiel	1:2
Taça de Portugal
16.09.12	Casa Pia - Penafiel	0:1

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