Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 22

Date: 26 February 2023, Sunday

Location: Estádio José Santos Pinto (Covilhã)

Referee: Nogueira M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Covilhã		Farense

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.25	2
	3.5	3	2
	3.45	3.25	2
	3.73	3.33	2.15
	3.6	3	2
	3.54	3.26	2.06
	3.5	3.1	2.04
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.55 ↓ (4.2)	3.17 ↓ (3.2)	2.04 ↑ (1.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Covilhã
25.9%

Draw
29%

Farense
45.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.4%

28.1%

50.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.1%

27.2%

48.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Covilhã has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Farense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Farense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Covilhã than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Farense than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	30%	40%

Covilhã - Farense Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Covilhã will win (votes: 3 - 30%). Farense will win (votes: 4 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Farense: 9.6% – 70.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3 and 4).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Covilhã won 0.

Recent matches Covilhã is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Farense is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Farense could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Farense will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Covilhã won 2 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 7-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Covilhã won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Covilhã
Portuguese Liga 2
18.02.23	Penafiel - Covilhã	1:1 ✺
11.02.23	Covilhã - Tondela	1:0 ✺
06.02.23	Feirense - Covilhã	0:2 ✺
29.01.23	Covilhã - Porto B	1:2 ✺
22.01.23	Covilhã - Moreirense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 27.7 TWWLT
- SC Farense
Portuguese Liga 2
19.02.23	Farense - Mafra	1:0 ✺
12.02.23	Académico de Viseu - Farense	2:0 ✺
03.02.23	Farense - Estrela da Amadora	2:2 ✺
29.01.23	Torreense - Farense	1:0 ✺
22.01.23	Tondela - Farense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
04.09.22	Farense - Covilhã	2:2
03.04.22	Farense - Covilhã	1:0
07.11.21	Covilhã - Farense	0:0
19.01.20	Farense - Covilhã	0:0
31.03.19	Farense - Covilhã	1:0
02.12.18	Covilhã - Farense	1:1
13.02.16	Farense - Covilhã	0:2

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