Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 23

Date: 20 February 2026, Friday

Location: Estádio José Gomes (Amadora)

Where to Watch on TV:


Angola	Z Sports 1
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 7
Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine


	Estrela da Amadora		Tondela

	1	X	2
	2.85	2.85	2.65	Watch
	2.88	2.92	2.62	Watch
	2.97	3	2.76
	2.89	2.99	2.69	Watch
	2.8	2.9	2.6
	2.94	3.05	2.76	Watch
	2.62	3	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.85 ↑ (2.52)	2.96 ↓ (3.26)	2.7 ↓ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estrela da Amadora
33.1%

Draw
31.9%

Tondela
34.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.5%

29.7%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.4%

29.6%

31.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estrela da Amadora has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Estrela da Amadora's form might have worsened.

Tondela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Estrela da Amadora, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.3%	40%	6.7%

Estrela da Amadora - Tondela Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Estrela will win (votes: 8 - 53.3%). Tondela will win (votes: 1 - 6.7%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Estrela: 28.1% – 78.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 4 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH 0 - Estrela (1.94) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DNB - Tondela (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Estrela (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Tondela (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Ribeiro R. (G) 17. Encada J. 30. Luan Patrick 4. Lekovic S. 83. Otavio 6. Jansson K. 99. Marcus A. 19. Moreira P. 39. Doue G. 11. Jovane (C) 20. van Hooijdonk S.	31. Bernardo (G) 2. Bebeto (C) 44. Silva J. 4. Marques C. 20. Medina B. 27. Conceicao R. 7. Pedro Maranhao 97. Cicero 10. Hodge J. 90. Aiko M. 23. Kimpioka B.
Substitutes
7. Antonetti L. 26. Brahimi B. 13. Dudu (G) 28. Moustier T. 3. Ni 9. Rodrigo Pinho 21. Scholze M. 63. Sola A. 10. Stoica I.	5. Afonso J. 30. Canizares L. (G) 79. Felix H. 48. Manso T. 70. Moudjatovic M. 32. Rodriguez J. 16. Rony Lopes 15. Sithole S. 8. Tavares H.
Coaches
Silva L.	Bacci C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Bebeto (Penalty Awarded),
17', Aiko M. ↓, Felix H. ↑,
41', Doue G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Otavio ↓, Scholze M. ↑,
46', Doue G. ↓, Brahimi B. ↑,
61', Moreira P. 🟨,
62', Hodge J. 🟨,
65', Jansson K. ↓, Stoica I. ↑,
67', Hodge J. ↓, Sithole S. ↑,
67', Cicero ↓, Tavares H. ↑,
69', Sithole S. 🟨,
73', Encada J. ↓, Moustier T. ↑,
73', Jovane ↓, Rodrigo Pinho ↑,
75', 0 - 2, Pedro Maranhao ⚽,
77', Cicero 🟨,
87', Medina B. 🟨,
89', Pedro Maranhao ↓, Manso T. ↑,
89', Bebeto ↓, Afonso J. ↑,
90+5', Luan Patrick 🟥,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 11 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Estrela: Bernardo Schappo (Yellow Cards) Jansson K. (Injury) Kalley Y. (Inactive) Langa B. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Tondela: Maviram E. (Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Estrela won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1. (average 0.3:0.3).

Including home match between the teams, Estrela won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Estrela	7	2	4	1	14:14	0	10

Last Results with these Odds

Estrela da Amadora - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 38.47%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estrela da Amadora
Liga Portugal
14.02.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Estrela da Amadora	2:1 ✺
07.02.26	Estrela da Amadora - Santa Clara	1:0 ✺
31.01.26	Alverca - Estrela da Amadora	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Benfica - Estrela da Amadora	4:0 ✺
19.01.26	Estrela da Amadora - Estoril Praia	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LWTLL
- CD Tondela
Liga Portugal
13.02.26	Tondela - Alverca	1:1 ✺
07.02.26	Estoril Praia - Tondela	2:2 ✺
01.02.26	Tondela - Benfica	0:0 ✺
25.01.26	Famalicão - Tondela	3:0 ✺
18.01.26	Tondela - Braga	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 TTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
21.09.25	Tondela - Estrela da Amadora	0:0
Portuguese Liga 2
26.02.23	Estrela da Amadora - Tondela	0:0
05.09.22	Tondela - Estrela da Amadora	1:1

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