Match Info

Date: 8 February 2022, Tuesday


	Crewe Alexandra		Plymouth Argyle

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.6	2.15
	3.3	3.4	2.05
	3.4	3.55	2.1
	3.15	3.45	2.1
	3.17	3.68	2.24
	3.25	3.5	2.1
	3.35	3.8	2.16	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.27 ↓ (3.4)	3.57 ↑ (3.3)	2.13 ↑ (2.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Crewe Alexandra
29%

Draw
26.5%

Plymouth Argyle
44.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.5%

28.3%

44.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.7%

21.3%

58.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Crewe Alexandra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Plymouth Argyle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crewe Alexandra than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Crewe Alexandra that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Plymouth Argyle than the current prediction. (+14.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Plymouth Argyle could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Crewe Alexandra - Plymouth Argyle Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 8).

Crewe has the most likely position - 23 (28.04%), has project points - 37, has currently - 22, has a good chance of relegated (89%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Plymouth has the most likely position - 8 (13.77%), has project points - 73, has currently - 47, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (27%), has a small chance of promoted (8%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

The competitors look crappy now.

Crewe could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Plymouth have a series of guest games.

Plymouth will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Crewe won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 7-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Crewe won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Crewe Alexandra
English League One
01.02.22	Gillingham - Crewe Alexandra	1:0 ✺
29.01.22	Crewe Alexandra - Rotherham United	0:2 ✺
22.01.22	Cambridge United - Crewe Alexandra	1:0 ✺
15.01.22	Crewe Alexandra - Shrewsbury Town	0:0 ✺
12.01.22	Crewe Alexandra - Charlton Athletic	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LLLTW
- Plymouth Argyle
English FA Cup
05.02.22	Chelsea - Plymouth Argyle	2:1 ET ✺
English League One
29.01.22	Doncaster Rovers - Plymouth Argyle	1:3 ✺
25.01.22	Fleetwood Town - Plymouth Argyle	3:3 ✺
22.01.22	Plymouth Argyle - Lincoln City	1:2 ✺
15.01.22	Sheffield Wednesday - Plymouth Argyle	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LWTLL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
28.09.21	Plymouth Argyle - Crewe Alexandra	1:1
16.01.21	Plymouth Argyle - Crewe Alexandra	1:1
15.12.20	Crewe Alexandra - Plymouth Argyle	2:1
English League Two
15.02.20	Plymouth Argyle - Crewe Alexandra	2:1
03.08.19	Crewe Alexandra - Plymouth Argyle	0:3
29.04.17	Plymouth Argyle - Crewe Alexandra	2:1
12.11.16	Crewe Alexandra - Plymouth Argyle	1:2

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