Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 21

Date: 11 August 2025, Monday

Location: Estádio Heriberto Hülse (Criciúma)

Referee: Vitor Gobi J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Criciúma		Athletico Paranaense

	1	X	2
	2.63	3	2.8	Watch
	2.25	2.9	3.2
	2.62	2.92	2.82
	2.91	3.03	2.74
	2.77	2.93	2.72	Watch
	2.4	2.9	3.25
	2.54	3.01	2.92	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 ↓ (2.7)	2.96 ↓ (3.25)	2.92 ↑ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Criciúma
36.2%

Draw
31.7%

Athletico Paranaense
32.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.1%

28.3%

37.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.6%

28.7%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Criciúma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Athletico Paranaense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Athletico Paranaense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Criciúma than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Athletico Paranaense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
31.2%	50%	18.7%

Criciúma - Athletico Paranaense Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Criciúma will win (votes: 5 - 31.3%). Athletico PR will win (votes: 3 - 18.8%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 25.5% – 74.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Criciúma (votes: 4 - 50%). Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Alisson (G) 3. Rodrigo (C) 14. Benevenuto 4. Luciano Castan 6. Marcinho 5. Matheus Trindade 25. Guilherme Lobo 10. Jhonata Robert 76. Felipinho 77. Diego Goncalves 9. Nicolas	23. Santos (G) 14. Kaua Moraes 29. Benavidez G. 3. Leo (C) 37. Esquivel L. 5. Felipinho 88. Patrick 10. Zapelli B. 53. Dudu Kogitzki 17. Mendoza S. 9. Viveros K.
Substitutes
19. Borasi B. 7. Fellipe Mateus 11. Gustavo Maia 20. Jean Carlos 21. Joao Carlos 12. Kaua Moroso (G) 23. Leo Alaba 88. Luiz Henrique 24. Nufour S. 80. Ruan Carvalho 99. Sassa 39. Thales	27. Alan Kardec 45. Belezi 63. Diogo Riquelme 6. Fernando 8. Giuliano 28. Habraao 11. Isaac 61. Leo Derik 21. Leozinho 19. Luiz Fernando 1. Mycael (G) 30. Tevis
Coaches
Eduardo Baptista	Hellmann O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
30', 0 - 1, Mendoza S. (Pen),
32', 0 - 2, Kaua Moraes ⚽, Zapelli B. (A),
37', Benevenuto 🟨,
45+2', 1 - 2, Rodrigo ⚽,
45+4', Mendoza S. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Dudu Kogitzki ↓, Luiz Fernando ↑,
46', Benevenuto ↓, Joao Carlos ↑,
55', 2 - 2, Nicolas (Pen),
57', Marcinho 🟨,
58', Luiz Fernando 🟨,
63', Kaua Moraes ↓, Belezi ↑,
66', 3 - 2, Matheus Trindade ⚽,
69', Benavidez G. 🟨,
71', Zapelli B. ↓, Giuliano ↑,
72', Felipinho ↓, Leozinho ↑,
74', Leo ↓, Alan Kardec ↑,
81', Jhonata Robert ↓, Jean Carlos ↑,
82', Nicolas ↓, Borasi B. ↑,
82', 4 - 2, Rodrigo ⚽, Diego Goncalves (A),
83', Rodrigo 🟨,
86', Guilherme Lobo ↓, Luiz Henrique ↑,
90+3', Diego Goncalves ↓, Sassa ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 8 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Criciúma won 0.

Criciúma is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Athletico PR's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Athletico PR may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Criciúma: Joao Carlos (Injury) Jonathan (Inactive) Juninho (Inactive) Leo Naldi (Red Card) Thales (Inactive) Yan Souto (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Athletico PR: Aguirre Tabares J. F. (Foot Injury) Luiz Fernando (Muscle Injury) Raul (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Criciúma: Gabriel Barros (Inactive) Heitor Roca (Knee Injury) Ze Gabriel (Inactive)

There are questionable in Athletico PR: Julimar (Knee Injury) Madson (Muscle Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Criciúma won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 5:12. (average 0.5:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Criciúma won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Criciúma EC
Brazilian Serie B
01.08.25	Operário Ferroviario - Criciúma	1:0 ✺
29.07.25	Criciúma - Cuiabá	1:0 ✺
24.07.25	Botafogo SP - Criciúma	0:2 ✺
18.07.25	Atlético Goianiense - Criciúma	0:1 ✺
13.07.25	Criciúma - Ferroviária	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.1 LWWWW
- Athletico Paranaense
Copa do Brasil
06.08.25	Athletico Paranaense - São Paulo	2:0 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie B
03.08.25	Athletico Paranaense - Paysandu	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
31.07.25	São Paulo - Athletico Paranaense	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
27.07.25	América Mineiro - Athletico Paranaense	2:2 ✺
22.07.25	Athletico Paranaense - Ferroviária	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WTLTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
10.04.25	Athletico Paranaense - Criciúma	2:1
Brazilian Serie A
22.09.24	Criciúma - Athletico Paranaense	0:0
13.06.24	Athletico Paranaense - Criciúma	3:1
Brazilian Primeira Liga
24.02.16	Athletico Paranaense - Criciúma	1:0
Brazilian Serie A
22.10.14	Criciúma - Athletico Paranaense	0:1
20.07.14	Athletico Paranaense - Criciúma	2:0
13.11.13	Criciúma - Athletico Paranaense	2:1

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