Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 18

Date: 22 July 2025, Tuesday

Location: Ligga Arena (Curitiba)

Referee: Furtado A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Athletico Paranaense		Ferroviária

	1	X	2
	1.5	3.7	7.5	Watch
	1.62	3.4	5.5
	1.49	3.7	7.3
	1.67	3.45	6.65
	1.53	3.78	6.56	Watch
	1.67	3.3	6
	1.5	3.76	7.75	Watch
	1.33	4.5	9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↑ (1.38)	3.7 ↓ (4.25)	7.03 ↓ (8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletico Paranaense
61.2%

Draw
25.4%

Ferroviária
13.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.8%

21.7%

11.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.6%

20.5%

10.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletico Paranaense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Athletico Paranaense's form might have worsened.

Ferroviária has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Athletico Paranaense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Athletico Paranaense - Ferroviária Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Athletico PR (2.09) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Athletico Paranaense will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.24% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Athletico Paranaense will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletico PR (votes: 12 - 92.3%). Ferroviária (votes: 1 - 7.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Santos (G) 14. Moraes K. 45. Belezi 33. Aguirre Tabares J. F. 3. Leo 31. Raul 88. Patrick 8. Giuliano (C) 10. Zapelli B. 17. Mendoza S. 27. Alan Kardec	41. Denis Junior (G) 2. Lucas Rodrigues 22. Ronaldo Alves (C) 13. Gustavo Medina 66. Edson Lucas 8. Alencar 29. Tarik 35. Netinho 20. Albano 39. Thayllon 9. Ronaldo
Substitutes
65. Arthur Dias 53. Dudu Kogitzki 5. Felipinho 28. Habraao 57. Joao Cruz 61. Leo Derik 21. Leozinho 1. Mycael (G) 70. Renan Peixoto 30. Tevis 7. Velasco K. 9. Viveros K.	80. Fabio 95. Filipe Costa (G) 25. Ian Luccas 43. Joao Ramos 77. Juninho 7. Kevin 1. Leo Wall (G) 33. Pedro Estevam 88. Raoni 37. Thiago Lopes 17. Victor Silva
Coaches
Hellmann O.	Vinicius Bergantin

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+1', Moraes K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
58', Alan Kardec ↓, Viveros K. ↑,
58', Patrick ↓, Dudu Kogitzki ↑,
63', 1 - 0, Mendoza S. ⚽, Zapelli B. (A),
65', Thayllon ↓, Juninho ↑,
65', Netinho ↓, Ian Luccas ↑,
74', Alencar ↓, Thiago Lopes ↑,
82', 1 - 1, Juninho (Pen),
83', Raul ↓, Felipinho ↑,
83', Giuliano ↓, Joao Cruz ↑,
84', Tarik 🟨,
88', Aguirre Tabares J. F. ↓, Leozinho ↑,
88', Tarik ↓, Joao Ramos ↑,
90+5', Ronaldo Alves 🟨,
90+5', Joao Ramos 🟨,
90+9', Lucas Rodrigues 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 9 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

In recent matches, Athletico PR has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ferroviária's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Ferroviária may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Athletico PR is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Athletico PR: Esquivel L. (Red Card) Isaac (Inactive) Julimar (Knee Injury) Luiz Fernando (Injury) Madson (Inactive)

There will not play in Ferroviária: Carlao (Red Card) Denilson (Inactive) Eric Melo (Inactive) Gustavo Jundi (Inactive) Ricardinho (Red Card) Wesley Pomba (Red Card) Ze Mario (Red Card)

There are questionable in Athletico PR: Dudu Marques (Inactive) Palacios H. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Ferroviária: Cassio Gabriel (Inactive) Maycon (Injury) Vitor Barreto (Inactive)

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie B
19.07.25	Volta Redonda - Athletico Paranaense	3:2 ✺
12.07.25	Athletico Paranaense - Goiás	0:1 ✺
05.07.25	Amazonas - Athletico Paranaense	0:1 ✺
28.06.25	Athletico Paranaense - Coritiba	0:1 ✺
21.06.25	Avaí - Athletico Paranaense	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LLWLW
- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Serie B
18.07.25	Ferroviária - Athletic Club	1:2 ✺
13.07.25	Criciúma - Ferroviária	2:1 ✺
06.07.25	Ferroviária - Vila Nova	1:3 ✺
30.06.25	Paysandu - Ferroviária	2:1 ✺
21.06.25	Ferroviária - CRB Maceio	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLLLW

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