Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 20

Date: 3 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Ligga Arena (Curitiba)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Athletico Paranaense		Paysandu

	1	X	2
	1.48	4	7.5	Watch
	1.52	3.8	5.75
	1.48	3.9	6.9
	1.48	4.07	7.9
	1.53	3.77	6.55	Watch
	1.57	3.6	6
	1.5	3.94	7.16	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↓ (1.57)	3.87 ↑ (3.67)	6.82 ↑ (6.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletico Paranaense
62.1%

Draw
24.2%

Paysandu
13.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.3%

25.4%

15.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.9%

26.1%

14.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Paysandu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	44.4%	11.1%

Athletico Paranaense - Paysandu Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Athletico PR will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Paysandu will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Athletico PR: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 3 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Paysandu (2.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Athletico PR (1.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletico PR (votes: 1 - 20%). Paysandu (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Santos (G) 45. Belezi 28. Habraao 3. Leo (C) 14. Moraes K. 63. Diogo Riquelme 5. Felipinho 61. Leo Derik 10. Zapelli B. 17. Mendoza S. 9. Viveros K.	12. Gabriel Mesquita (G) 4. Luan Freitas 6. Thalisson 5. Novillo J. 16. Reverson 29. Anderson Leite 28. Leandro Vilela (C) 30. Marcelinho 20. Denner 10. Mauricio Garcez 9. Diogo Oliveira
Substitutes
27. Alan Kardec 65. Arthur Dias 29. Benavidez G. 53. Dudu Kogitzki 6. Fernando 8. Giuliano 11. Isaac 57. Joao Cruz 1. Mycael (G) 88. Patrick 70. Renan Peixoto 30. Tevis	8. Andre Lima 2. Edilson 13. Matheus Nogueira (G) 35. Mauricio Antonio 94. Patric Calmon 19. Petterson Novaes 27. Ramon Martinez 25. Ronaldo Henrique 44. Thiago Heleno 99. Vinicius Faria 26. Wendel
Coaches
Hellmann O.	Claudinei Oliveira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
41', Leandro Vilela 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Felipinho ↓, Dudu Kogitzki ↑,
63', Patrick 🟨,
65', Marcelinho ↓, Petterson Novaes ↑,
71', Belezi ↓, Benavidez G. ↑,
71', Leo Derik ↓, Alan Kardec ↑,
79', Anderson Leite 🟨,
79', Anderson Leite ↓, Ramon Martinez ↑,
80', Denner ↓, Edilson ↑,
83', 1 - 0, Dudu Kogitzki ⚽,
86', 1 - 1, Diogo Oliveira ⚽, Edilson (A),
88', Mendoza S. 🟨,
89', Novillo J. ↓, Thiago Heleno ↑,
90+2', Diogo Riquelme ↓, Giuliano ↑,
90+2', Zapelli B. ↓, Tevis ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 12 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

Athletico PR has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Paysandu has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Paysandu may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Athletico PR is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Athletico PR: Aguirre Tabares J. F. (Foot Injury) Esquivel L. (Knee Injury) Julimar (Knee Injury) Leo Derik (Muscle Injury) Luiz Fernando (Muscle Injury) Madson (Muscle Injury) Raul (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Paysandu: Dudu Vieira (Inactive) Marlon Douglas (Yellow Cards) Matheus Vargas (Inactive) Rossi (Inactive)

There are questionable in Athletico PR: Dudu Marques (Inactive)

There are questionable in Paysandu: Delvalle P. (Ankle Injury) Edinho (Knee Injury) Luan Freitas (Inactive) Marlon Douglas (Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Athletico PR won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 1.3:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Athletico PR won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletico Paranaense
Copa do Brasil
31.07.25	São Paulo - Athletico Paranaense	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
27.07.25	América Mineiro - Athletico Paranaense	2:2 ✺
22.07.25	Athletico Paranaense - Ferroviária	1:1 ✺
19.07.25	Volta Redonda - Athletico Paranaense	3:2 ✺
12.07.25	Athletico Paranaense - Goiás	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LTTLL
- Paysandu PA
Brazilian Serie B
28.07.25	Paysandu - Athletic Club	1:1 ✺
23.07.25	Amazonas - Paysandu	1:1 ✺
19.07.25	Coritiba - Paysandu	2:5 ✺
12.07.25	Paysandu - Atlético Goianiense	2:2 ✺
05.07.25	Avaí - Paysandu	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 TTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
04.04.25	Paysandu - Athletico Paranaense	1:2
Copa do Brasil
24.07.13	Athletico Paranaense - Paysandu	2:1
17.07.13	Paysandu - Athletico Paranaense	0:0

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