The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Criciúma 27.6%
Draw 29.1%
Bahia 43.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
34.3%
29.5%
36.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
34.5%
29.7%
36%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Criciúma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Criciúma's form might have worsened.
Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Bahia's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Criciúma than the current prediction. (+6.9%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Criciúma, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-7.3%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Bahia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
16.7%
12.5%
70.8%
Criciúma - Bahia Predictions
Users Predictions:
21 users predict this event. Criciúma will win (votes: 4 - 19%). Bahia will win (votes: 14 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 14.3%). Confidence interval (95%) for Bahia: 46.5% – 86.9%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Gustavo (G) 13. Jonathan 3. Rodrigo (C) 29. Figueiredo T. 22. Marcelo Hermes 88. Gustavo Barreto 8. Newton 6. Ronald Lopes 11. Bolasie Y. 45. Arthur Caike 17. Matheusinho
22. Marcos Felipe (G) 2. Gilberto 3. Gabriel Xavier 46. Luciano Juba 19. Caio Alexandre 6. Jean Lucas 10. Everton Ribeiro (C) 8. Cauly 16. Thaciano 9. Everaldo 15. Victor Cuesta
Substitutes
25. Alisson (G) 2. Allano 30. Barcia M. 23. Citadin E. 27. Claudinho 15. Eliedson 41. Erick Garcia 5. Higor Meritao 21. Joao Carlos 10. Marquinhos Gabriel 33. Thiago Mina 14. Trauco M.
7. Ademir 23. Adriel (G) 11. Biel 40. Cicinho 1. Danilo Fernandes (G) 33. David Duarte 29. Estupinan O. 44. Marcos Victor 21. Rafael Ratao 5. Rezende 66. Ryan Carlos 20. Yago Felipe
Coaches
Claudio Tencati
Rogerio Ceni
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
30', Figueiredo T. 🟨,
34', 1 - 0, Marcelo Hermes ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Jonathan ↓, Claudinho ↑,
46', 2 - 0, Arthur Caike ⚽, Rodrigo (A),
56', 2 - 1, Everaldo ⚽, Everton Ribeiro (A),
57', Gustavo 🟨,
63', Gustavo 🟨,
65', Matheusinho ↓, Alisson ↑,
72', 2 - 2, Caio Alexandre ⚽, Cauly (A),
74', Gilberto ↓, Ademir ↑,
74', Everton Ribeiro ↓, Estupinan O. ↑,
74', Jean Lucas ↓, Biel ↑,
77', Bolasie Y. ↓, Marquinhos Gabriel ↑,
77', Ronald Lopes ↓, Thiago Mina ↑,
85', Arthur Caike ↓, Citadin E. ↑,
88', Thaciano 🟨,
88', Citadin E. 🟨,
90', Caio Alexandre ↓, Yago Felipe ↑,
90', Victor Cuesta ↓, Rezende ↑,
Preview
This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Criciúma won 0.
Criciúma has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
Bahia is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
Bahia could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
Bahia will have a poor advantage in this game.
There will not play in Bahia: Nicolas Acevedo
(Injury)
Our prediction for today's Bahia to win the game is with odds 2.27.
Last 12 head-to-head matches Criciúma won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 11-15.
Including matches at home between the teams Criciúma won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8-7.
Brazil
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World
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Gustavo (G) 
Figueiredo T. 
Bolasie Y. 
Victor Cuesta 
Barcia M. 
Citadin E. 
Trauco M. 
Cicinho 
Estupinan O. 
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