Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 9

Date: 26 May 2025, Monday

Location: Estádio Heriberto Hülse (Criciúma)

Referee: Vollkopf P. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Criciúma		Coritiba

	1	X	2
	2.2	3	3.6	Watch
	2.25	2.9	3.2
	2.15	3	3.65
	2.2	3.07	3.86
	2.15	3.02	3.72	Watch
	2.3	2.9	3.3
	2.14	3.13	3.65	Watch
	2.15	3	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↓ (2.44)	3 ↓ (3.23)	3.58 ↑ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Criciúma
42.7%

Draw
31.2%

Coritiba
26.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38%

28.7%

33.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

28.5%

33.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Criciúma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Coritiba has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Coritiba might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Criciúma than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Coritiba than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Coritiba could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	40%	0%

Criciúma - Coritiba Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Criciúma will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Criciúma (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Coritiba (2.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Criciúma (votes: 1 - 50%). Coritiba (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Kaua Moroso (G) 3. Rodrigo (C) 14. Benevenuto 4. Luciano Castan 6. Marcinho 35. Ze Gabriel 25. Guilherme Lobo 40. Everton Morelli 22. Marcelo Hermes 77. Diego Goncalves 39. Thales	1. Pedro Morisco (G) 20. Alex Silva 3. Maicon 26. Bruno Melo 73. Zeca 8. Filipe Machado 19. Gomez S. (C) 10. Josue 36. Vini Paulista 91. Gustavo Coutinho 7. Nicolas Careca
Substitutes
73. Adrianinho 1. Alisson (G) 17. Bugs L. 36. Heitor Roca 21. Joao Carlos 23. Leo Alaba 5. Matheus Trindade 30. Octavio Henrique 34. Otusanya O. 99. Sassa 2. Yan Souto	49. Dellatorre 27. de Pena C. 37. Everaldo 87. Gabriel Leite (G) 5. Geovane 38. Geovane Meurer 16. Joao Almeida 86. Lucas Taverna 12. Pedro Rangel (G) 97. Ruan Assis 23. Tiago Coser 70. Wallisson
Coaches
Eduardo Baptista	Mozart

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Benevenuto 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
58', Guilherme Lobo ↓, Adrianinho ↑,
59', Thales ↓, Joao Carlos ↑,
60', 0 - 1, Vini Paulista ⚽, Alex Silva (A),
64', Benevenuto ↓, Juninho ↑,
70', Nicolas Careca ↓, Wallisson ↑,
70', Gustavo Coutinho ↓, Dellatorre ↑,
70', Filipe Machado ↓, Geovane ↑,
72', Diego Goncalves ↓, Sassa ↑,
72', Ze Gabriel ↓, Otusanya O. ↑,
74', Otusanya O. 🟨,
74', Zeca 🟨,
83', Josue 🟨,
85', Gomez S. ↓, Tiago Coser ↑,
85', Josue ↓, Everaldo ↑,
88', Everaldo 🟨,
90+2', Bruno Melo 🟨,
90+2', Vini Paulista 🟨,
90+3', Marcinho 🟨,
90+8', Adrianinho 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Criciúma won 1.

Criciúma has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Coritiba has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Coritiba may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Criciúma might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Criciúma: Fellipe Mateus (Inactive) Gabriel Barros (Inactive) Gabriel Novaes (Inactive)

There will not play in Coritiba: Everaldo (Inactive) Rodrigo Moledo (Inactive)

There are questionable in Criciúma: Jonathan (Injury)

There are questionable in Coritiba: Dellatorre (Inactive) Nicolas Careca (Inactive) Pedro Morisco (Inactive)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Criciúma won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:11. (average 1.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Criciúma won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:4. (average 1.8:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Criciúma EC
Copa do Brasil
22.05.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Criciúma	6:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
18.05.25	CRB Maceio - Criciúma	1:0 ✺
11.05.25	Criciúma - Volta Redonda	0:0 ✺
04.05.25	Chapecoense - Criciúma	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
01.05.25	Criciúma - Red Bull Bragantino	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLTLW
- Coritiba
Brazilian Serie B
19.05.25	Coritiba - América Mineiro	1:0 ✺
10.05.25	Goiás - Coritiba	1:0 ✺
02.05.25	Ferroviária - Coritiba	2:1 ✺
26.04.25	Coritiba - Operário Ferroviario	2:0 ✺
21.04.25	Remo - Coritiba	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa do Brasil
14.03.23	Coritiba - Criciúma	2:1 penalties
Brazilian Serie B
12.10.19	Coritiba - Criciúma	1:0
09.07.19	Criciúma - Coritiba	2:1
21.08.18	Criciúma - Coritiba	2:2
27.04.18	Coritiba - Criciúma	2:1
Brazilian Serie A
08.10.14	Coritiba - Criciúma	1:0
28.05.14	Criciúma - Coritiba	1:0

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