Match Info

CONCACAF Champions Cup - 1/8-finals

Date: 17 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Cuauhtémoc (Puebla)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Canada	OneSoccer
India	FanCode, FanCode
Mexico	FOX One
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
South-america	ViX Latin America
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	FOX One, Fox Sports 1, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Fox, TUDN App, TUDN
Venezuela	Disney+


	Cruz Azul		Monterrey

	1	X	2
	1.57	4.5	5	Watch
	1.85	3.75	3.7
	1.55	4.15	4.95	Watch
	1.56	4.41	5.7
	1.54	4.36	5.22	Watch
	1.53	3.9	5
	1.56	4.2	5.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↓ (1.82)	4.18 ↑ (3.6)	4.98 ↑ (4.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cruz Azul
58.8%

Draw
22.4%

Monterrey
18.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51%

25.8%

23.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54%

24.4%

21.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cruz Azul has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cruz Azul's performance.

Monterrey has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cruz Azul than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monterrey than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	12.5%	0%

Cruz Azul - Monterrey Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Cruz Azul (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Cruz Azul will win (14 of 16 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.29% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Cruz Azul will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Cruz Azul (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gudino A. (G) 4. Ditta W. 6. Lira E. (C) 33. Piovi G. 3. Campos O. 8. Palavecino A. 16. Marquez J. 22. Rodarte J. 20. Paradela J. 19. Rodriguez C. 7. Ibanez N.	22. Cardenas L. (C) 13. Salcedo C. 4. Guzman V. 19. Aceves A. 21. Reyes L. 30. Rodriguez J. 34. Bustos C. 27. de la Rosa R. 17. Corona J. 42. Frayde C. 9. Martial A.
Substitutes
42. Castro A. 37. Diaz J. 11. Ebere C. 21. Fernandez G. 17. Garcia A. 34. Levy M. 23. Mier K. (G) 10. Montano A. 31. Morales A. 30. Ochoa E. (G) 18. Romero L. 28. Valdez D.	3. Arteaga G. 2. Chavez R. 40. Cuneo K. (G) 20. Djurdjevic U. 45. Dominguez J. 36. Galvez O. 39. Moxica J. 11. Orellano L. 43. Perez S. (G) 37. Reyes C. 38. Rojas A. 41. Urias A.
Coaches
Larcamon N.	Sanchez N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Rodriguez J. ⚽, de la Rosa R. (A),
22', Aceves A. ↓, Arteaga G. ↑,
29', Frayde C. 🟨,
37', Piovi G. 🟨,
45+4', Guzman V. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
47', 1 - 1, Paradela J. ⚽, Campos O. (A),
52', Rodarte J. 🟨,
57', Salcedo C. 🟨,
59', Rodriguez J. 🟨,
60', Frayde C. ↓, Orellano L. ↑,
60', Martial A. ↓, Reyes C. ↑,
68', Ibanez N. ↓, Fernandez G. ↑,
69', de la Rosa R. ↓, Djurdjevic U. ↑,
69', Guzman V. ↓, Chavez R. ↑,
72', Palavecino A. ↓, Romero L. ↑,
72', Piovi G. ↓, Garcia A. ↑,
86', Paradela J. ↓, Montano A. ↑,
87', Campos O. ↓, Diaz J. ↑,

Preview

First leg result: 3-2. Second leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cruz Azul won 4.

Cruz Azul is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Monterrey is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Monterrey may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Cruz Azul has had a series of away games.

In this match, Cruz Azul is considered a favorite.

We predict that Cruz Azul will win today's game, with odds of 1.7.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cruz Azul won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 28:29. (average 1.4:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Cruz Azul won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:16. (average 1.2:1.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Cruz Azul - the odds 1.82 are the expected chance of winning is 51.04%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cruz Azul FC
Mexican Liga MX
14.03.26	UNAM - Cruz Azul	2:2 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
10.03.26	Monterrey - Cruz Azul	2:3 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
07.03.26	Cruz Azul - Atlético San Luis	3:0 ✺
03.03.26	Santos Laguna - Cruz Azul	1:2 ✺
28.02.26	Monterrey - Cruz Azul	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 TWWWW
- CF Monterrey
Mexican Liga MX
13.03.26	Juárez - Monterrey	2:2 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
10.03.26	Monterrey - Cruz Azul	2:3 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
07.03.26	Tigres UANL - Monterrey	1:0 ✺
04.03.26	Monterrey - Querétaro	4:0 ✺
28.02.26	Monterrey - Cruz Azul	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

CONCACAF Champions Cup
10.03.26	Monterrey - Cruz Azul	2:3
Mexican Liga MX
28.02.26	Monterrey - Cruz Azul	0:2
25.10.25	Cruz Azul - Monterrey	2:0
08.03.25	Cruz Azul - Monterrey	1:1
13.07.24	Monterrey - Cruz Azul	0:4
19.05.24	Cruz Azul - Monterrey	1:2
16.05.24	Monterrey - Cruz Azul	0:1

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