Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 27

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Arena Pantanal (Cuiabá)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 4, RedeTV!, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Cuiabá		Chapecoense

	1	X	2
	1.81	3.4	4.33	Watch
	1.88	3.2	4.15
	1.95	3.33	4.63
	1.98	2.97	4.38	Watch
	1.88	3.39	4.15	Watch
	1.95	3.2	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (2.1)	3.25 ↑ (3.24)	4.22 ↑ (3.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cuiabá
49%

Draw
28.8%

Chapecoense
22.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.9%

29.1%

26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.9%

30.4%

24.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cuiabá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Chapecoense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cuiabá than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Cuiabá - Chapecoense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
50. Luan Polli (G) 20. David Miguel 3. Bruno Alves 5. Calebe Costa 33. Alan Empereur (C) 8. Max Alves 7. Martinez A. 22. Nino Paraiba 27. Denilson Alves 70. Juan Christian 25. Alisson Safira	1. Rafael Santos (G) 3. Eduardo Doma 33. Bruno Leonardo (C) 32. Jhonnathan 2. Gabriel Inocencio 99. Rafael Carvalheira 48. Pedro Martins 37. Clar W. 10. Giovanni Augusto 18. Neto Pessoa 7. Marcinho
Substitutes
11. Carlos Alberto 45. De Lucca 13. Guilherme Mariano 12. Guilherme Nogueira (G) 10. Jader 77. Jadson 30. Lucas Mineiro 97. Luiz Felipe 66. Nathan Cruz 6. Sander	19. David Antunes 26. Everton 76. Felipe Vieira 77. Italo 5. Jorge Jimenez 21. Kauan 12. Leo Vieira (G) 90. Mailson 95. Marcinho 9. Pedro Perotti 28. Romulo
Coaches
Barros E.	Gilmar Pozzo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Calebe Costa 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Juan Christian ↓, Jader ↑,
61', Marcinho ↓, Italo ↑,
62', Gabriel Inocencio ↓, Everton ↑,
62', Neto Pessoa ↓, Pedro Perotti ↑,
68', David Miguel ↓, De Lucca ↑,
68', Nino Paraiba ↓, Jadson ↑,
69', Bruno Alves 🟨,
78', Martinez A. ↓, Carlos Alberto ↑,
78', Calebe Costa ↓, Nathan Cruz ↑,
87', 1 - 0, Jader ⚽, Max Alves (A),
90', Pedro Martins ↓, Marcinho ↑,
90', Bruno Leonardo ↓, Romulo ↑,
90+1', Jhonnathan 🟨,
90+4', De Lucca 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 8 and 5).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cuiabá won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Chapecoense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Cuiabá is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Cuiabá: Asad Y. (Injury) Mateus Pasinato (Inactive) Matheusinho (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Chapecoense: Bruno Matias (Yellow Cards) Joao Paulo (Yellow Cards) Victor Caetano (Injury)

There are questionable in Cuiabá: Nathan Pelae (Injury) Sander (Inactive)

There are questionable in Chapecoense: Bressan (Injury) Bruno Matias (Injury) Getulio (Injury) Mancha (Knee Injury) Marlon (Inactive) Vinicius Balieiro (Inactive)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Cuiabá won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:9. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Cuiabá won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cuiabá EC
Brazilian Serie B
14.09.25	Operário Ferroviario - Cuiabá	1:1 ✺
08.09.25	Cuiabá - CRB Maceio	1:0 ✺
01.09.25	Ferroviária - Cuiabá	2:2 ✺
24.08.25	Cuiabá - Atlético Goianiense	2:2 ✺
16.08.25	Athletico Paranaense - Cuiabá	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 TWTTT
- Chapecoense-SC
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
17.09.25	Chapecoense - Brusque	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
16.09.25	Chapecoense - Athletico Paranaense	2:3 ✺
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
10.09.25	Concórdia - Chapecoense	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
07.09.25	Criciúma - Chapecoense	2:0 ✺
01.09.25	Chapecoense - Vila Nova	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 TLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
16.05.25	Chapecoense - Cuiabá	2:1
Brazilian Serie A
04.11.21	Cuiabá - Chapecoense	0:0
18.07.21	Chapecoense - Cuiabá	2:3
Brazilian Serie B
01.12.20	Chapecoense - Cuiabá	1:0
28.08.20	Cuiabá - Chapecoense	2:1
Copa Sudamericana
31.08.16	Chapecoense - Cuiabá	3:1
25.08.16	Cuiabá - Chapecoense	1:0

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