Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 24

Date: 1 September 2025, Monday

Location: Arena Condá (Chapecó)

Referee: Santos Sa Junior F. A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Chapecoense		Vila Nova

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.1	4.75	Watch
	1.9	3	4.1
	1.95	3	4.15
	1.99	3.22	4.74
	1.82	2.99	5.36	Watch
	2	3	4
	1.96	3.2	4.22	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (2.07)	3.07 ↓ (3.09)	4.47 ↑ (3.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chapecoense
48.6%

Draw
30.5%

Vila Nova
20.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

30.2%

24.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.5%

29.3%

24%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chapecoense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Vila Nova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.5%	5.3%	5.3%

Chapecoense - Vila Nova Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Vila Nova (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.25 - Chapecoense (3.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -1 - Chapecoense (3.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Chapecoense will win (17 of 19 users predict this - 89.47%).
Confidence interval (95%): 75.67% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Chapecoense will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Chapecoense (votes: 9 - 90%). Vila Nova (votes: 1 - 10%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Leo Vieira (G) 2. Gabriel Inocencio 25. Victor Caetano 3. Eduardo Doma 4. Joao Paulo 37. Clar W. 16. Bruno Matias 99. Rafael Carvalheira 77. Italo 7. Marcinho (C) 18. Neto Pessoa	99. Halls (G) 2. Elias 6. Higor 4. Walisson Maia 3. Tiago Pagnussat (C) 5. Joao Vieira 14. Pedro Romano 10. Dodo 77. Guilherme Parede 17. Jean Mota 21. Ruan Ribeiro
Substitutes
14. Bressan 27. Eduardo Person 26. Everton 76. Felipe Vieira 32. Jhonnathan 5. Jorge Jimenez 90. Mailson 48. Pedro Martins 9. Pedro Perotti 1. Rafael Santos (G) 28. Romulo 70. Rubens Ricoldi	7. Andre Luis 20. Bruno Mendes 33. Bruno Xavier 9. Gabriel Poveda 18. Gustavo Paje 27. Igor Henrique 29. Junior Todinho 30. Mauricio Kozlinski (G) 15. Miticov 23. Nathan Melo 22. Thalys
Coaches
Gilmar Pozzo	Paulo Turra

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
15', Victor Caetano ↓, Everton ↑,
22', Higor 🟨,
41', 1 - 0, Rafael Carvalheira ⚽, Clar W. (A),
42', Dodo 🟨,
43', Tiago Pagnussat 🟨,
45+6', Italo 🟨,
45+10', 1 - 1, Joao Vieira (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Ruan Ribeiro ↓, Bruno Mendes ↑,
46', Tiago Pagnussat ↓, Nathan Melo ↑,
46', Jean Mota ↓, Bruno Xavier ↑,
49', Joao Paulo 🟨,
56', Nathan Melo 🟨,
61', Halls 🟨,
62', 2 - 1, Clar W. (Pen),
64', 2 - 2, Bruno Mendes ⚽, Guilherme Parede (A),
68', Italo ↓, Pedro Perotti ↑,
78', Guilherme Parede 🟨,
81', Joao Vieira 🟨,
83', Eduardo Person 🟥,
85', Marcinho ↓, Mailson ↑,
85', Joao Vieira ↓, Igor Henrique ↑,
85', Gabriel Inocencio ↓, Rubens Ricoldi ↑,
90+5', Guilherme Parede ↓, Junior Todinho ↑,
90+6', Mailson 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chapecoense won 0.

Chapecoense is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Vila Nova has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Chapecoense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Chapecoense is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Chapecoense: Eduardo Person (Inactive) Giovanni Augusto (Yellow Cards) Jhonnathan (Inactive) Mancha (Inactive) Marcinho (Inactive)

There will not play in Vila Nova: Emerson Urso (Injury) Marcondes (Knee Injury) Vinicius Paiva (Yellow Cards) Weverton (Red Card) Willian Formiga (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Chapecoense: Getulio (Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Chapecoense won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 4:8. (average 0.6:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Chapecoense won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 0.7:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chapecoense-SC
Brazilian Serie B
22.08.25	Athletic Club - Chapecoense	0:4 ✺
17.08.25	Chapecoense - Paysandu	2:0 ✺
08.08.25	Coritiba - Chapecoense	0:0 ✺
03.08.25	Chapecoense - CRB Maceio	3:2 ✺
27.07.25	Atlético Goianiense - Chapecoense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.2 WWTWT
- Vila Nova FC
Brazilian Serie B
25.08.25	Botafogo SP - Vila Nova	2:0 ✺
16.08.25	Vila Nova - Goiás	2:0 ✺
11.08.25	Paysandu - Vila Nova	0:1 ✺
31.07.25	Vila Nova - Coritiba	1:2 ✺
27.07.25	Volta Redonda - Vila Nova	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
25.04.25	Vila Nova - Chapecoense	1:0
18.09.24	Vila Nova - Chapecoense	3:2
02.06.24	Chapecoense - Vila Nova	1:1
01.10.23	Vila Nova - Chapecoense	0:0
06.06.23	Chapecoense - Vila Nova	0:1
29.08.22	Chapecoense - Vila Nova	1:2
19.05.22	Vila Nova - Chapecoense	0:0

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