Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie A Betano - Round 31

Date: 28 October 2024, Monday

Location: Arena Pantanal (Cuiabá)

Referee: Arleu B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Chile	MEGOGO
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 1
Peru	L1 Max
Ukraine	Sport 1
World	Fanatiz


	Cuiabá		Corinthians

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.1	2.3	Watch
	3.4	3	2.3
	3.4	3.1	2.25	Watch
	3.63	3.03	2.34
	3.52	3.01	2.3	Watch
	3.1	3.1	2.3
	3.35	3.13	2.32	Watch
	3.4	3.1	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.4 ↑ (2.75)	3.07 ↓ (3.3)	2.3 ↓ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cuiabá
27.9%

Draw
30.8%

Corinthians
41.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

28.6%

37%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35%

29.1%

36.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cuiabá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cuiabá's form might have worsened.

Corinthians has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cuiabá than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cuiabá, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
29.6%	25.9%	44.4%

Cuiabá - Corinthians Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Cuiabá will win (votes: 8 - 29.6%). Corinthians will win (votes: 12 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 25.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Corinthians: 25.7% – 63.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Walter (C) 2. Matheus Alexandre 4. Marllon 34. Bruno Alves 23. Ramon 5. Filipe Augusto 88. Fernando Sobral 18. Lucas Fernandes 19. Gustavo Sauer 9. Pitta I. 25. Clayson	1. Hugo Souza (C) 2. Matheus Franca 3. Torres F. 25. Caca 21. Matheus Bidu 14. Raniele 27. Breno Bidon 80. Alex Santana 77. Igor Coronado 43. Talles Magno 94. Depay M.
Substitutes
27. Denilson Alves 11. Eliel 44. Gabriel 77. Jadson 7. Jonathan Cafu 63. Juan Tavares 30. Lucas Mineiro 14. Mateus Pasinato (G) 10. Max Alves 21. Railan 12. Rhyan (G) 20. Souza D.	11. Angel Romero 19. Carrillo A. 8. Charles 23. Fagner 10. Garro R. 49. Gui Negao 13. Gustavo Henrique 35. Leo Mana 32. Matheus Donelli (G) 16. Pedro Henrique 20. Pedro Raul 5. Ramalho A.
Coaches
Franco B.	Diaz R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
44', 0 - 1, Depay M. (Pen),
45+3', Clayson 🟨,
45+4', Igor Coronado 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
48', Ramon 🟨,
55', Filipe Augusto 🟨,
56', Filipe Augusto ↓, Railan ↑,
61', Alex Santana ↓, Carrillo A. ↑,
61', Breno Bidon ↓, Charles ↑,
64', Fernando Sobral 🟨,
66', Caca ↓, Ramalho A. ↑,
70', Raniele 🟨,
71', Fernando Sobral ↓, Denilson Alves ↑,
79', Raniele ↓, Angel Romero ↑,
79', Igor Coronado ↓, Garro R. ↑,
83', Marllon 🟨,
89', Gustavo Sauer ↓, Max Alves ↑,
89', Matheus Alexandre ↓, Eliel ↑,

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cuiabá won 1.

Cuiabá is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Corinthians is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Corinthians could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Corinthians have a series of home games.

Corinthians will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Corinthians: Caca (Suspended) Maycon (Injury) Palacios D. (Injury) Ruan Oliveira (Injury) Yuri Alberto (Suspended)

Last 7 head-to-head matches Cuiabá won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 6:10 (average 0.9:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Cuiabá won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2:3 (average 0.7:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cuiabá EC
Brazilian Serie A
24.10.24	Vasco da Gama - Cuiabá	1:0 ✺
18.10.24	Atlético Goianiense - Cuiabá	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa FMF Mato Grosso
07.10.24	Cuiabá - Mixto	0:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.10.24	Cuiabá - São Paulo	2:0 ✺
29.09.24	Fortaleza - Cuiabá	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LTLWL
- Corinthians
Copa Sudamericana
24.10.24	Corinthians - Racing	2:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
20.10.24	Corinthians - Flamengo	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
17.10.24	Corinthians - Athletico Paranaense	5:2 ✺
05.10.24	Corinthians - Internacional RS	2:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
02.10.24	Flamengo - Corinthians	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 TTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
26.06.24	Corinthians - Cuiabá	1:1
25.10.23	Cuiabá - Corinthians	0:1
10.06.23	Corinthians - Cuiabá	1:1
01.10.22	Corinthians - Cuiabá	2:0
07.06.22	Cuiabá - Corinthians	1:0
13.11.21	Corinthians - Cuiabá	3:2
26.07.21	Cuiabá - Corinthians	1:2

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