Match Info

Serie B - Round 19

Date: 21 July 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga (Goiânia)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, RedeTV!
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Vila Nova		Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	2.50	3.00	3.00	Watch
	2.40	2.95	2.90
	2.45	3.15	2.90	Watch
	2.60	2.99	3.32
	2.51	2.97	3.05	Watch
	2.55	2.80	3.25
	2.51	2.80	3.15	Watch
	2.47	2.95	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↓ (2.6)	2.95 ↓ (3.2)	3.07 ↑ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Vila Nova
37.6%

Draw
31.8%

Fortaleza
30.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36%

29.3%

34.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.6%

28.2%

36.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vila Nova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fortaleza could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	50%	37.5%

Vila Nova - Fortaleza Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Vila Nova will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Fortaleza will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Helton Leite (G) 16. Igor Carius 4. Douglas Mendes 23. Breno Augusto 13. Willian Formiga 5. Joao Vieira 21. Higor Meritao 7. Andre Luis 10. Marquinhos Gabriel (C) 99. Janderson 49. Dellatorre	1. Joao Ricardo (C) 13. Mauricio Junior 23. Neris 4. Luan Freitas 18. Fuentes G. 88. Lucas Sasha 29. Rodrigo 16. Pedro Henrique 11. Vitinho 32. Luiz Fernando 9. Miritello J. B.
Substitutes
19. Caique 29. Dalberson (G) 31. Dodo 15. Dudu 70. Emerson Urso 18. Enzo Bizzotto 9. Gustavo Puskas 22. Hayner 17. Kerlon 20. Nathan Camargo 14. Nunes S.	6. Cardona T. 33. Kaua Rocha 10. Lucas Crispim 15. Magrao (G) 22. Mailton 17. Nathan Fogaca 77. Paulo Baya 5. Pierre 8. Ronald 37. Ryan 25. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 31. Welliton
Coaches
Guto Ferreira	Thiago Carpini

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, Douglas Mendes ⚽, Marquinhos Gabriel (A),
32', 2 - 0, Joao Vieira ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Miritello J. B. ↓, Nathan Fogaca ↑,
46', Lucas Sasha ↓, Pierre ↑,
46', Luiz Fernando ↓, Paulo Baya ↑,
62', Igor Carius ↓, Hayner ↑,
65', Andre Luis ↓, Dudu ↑,
66', Vitinho ↓, Welliton ↑,
69', Nathan Fogaca 🟨,
77', Mauricio Junior ↓, Mailton ↑,
78', 2 - 1, Pedro Henrique ⚽,
84', Pierre 🟨,
85', Dellatorre ↓, Gustavo Puskas ↑,
85', Marquinhos Gabriel ↓, Dodo ↑,
85', Higor Meritao ↓, Emerson Urso ↑,
90+2', Fuentes G. 🟨,
90+2', Emerson Urso 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)).

Recent performances by Vila Nova have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Fortaleza is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Vila Nova may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Vila Nova: Higor (Yellow Cards) Rafa Silva (Knee Injury) Ryan (Injury) Tiago Pagnussat (Yellow Cards) Willian Maranhao (Inactive)

There will not play in Fortaleza: Lucas Gazal (Yellow Cards) Machuca I. (Suspended) Nathan Fogaca (Inactive)

There are questionable in Fortaleza: Bruninho (Muscle Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Vila Nova won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Vila Nova won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0. (average 0:0).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Vila Nova FC	32	17	7	8	44:31	13	58
3	Fortaleza	32	15	11	6	37:27	10	56

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vila Nova FC
Brazilian Serie B
18.07.26	Criciúma - Vila Nova	2:0 ✺
10.07.26	Juventude - Vila Nova	1:0 ✺
06.07.26	Vila Nova - São Bernardo	2:1 ✺
26.06.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Vila Nova	2:1 ✺
20.06.26	Vila Nova - Náutico Capibaribe	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LLWLW
- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie B
17.07.26	Fortaleza - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0 ✺
12.07.26	Atlético Goianiense - Fortaleza	1:0 ✺
02.07.26	Fortaleza - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
28.06.26	Fortaleza - Sport Recife	2:1 ✺
21.06.26	CRB Maceio - Fortaleza	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
21.09.18	Fortaleza - Vila Nova	2:0
05.06.18	Vila Nova - Fortaleza	0:0
Brazilian Serie C
08.08.15	Vila Nova - Fortaleza	0:0
23.05.15	Fortaleza - Vila Nova	3:2

Upcoming Matches