Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 6 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega (Cusco)

Referee: Guerrero G. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bolivia	ESPN
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+, ESPN 5
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	ESPN
Georgia	Silk Universal
Germany	Sportdigital1+
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	Como TV
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Cusco		Estudiantes La Plata

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.3	2.25	Watch
	2.9	3.1	2.45
	3.2	3.2	2.22	Watch
	3.25	3.24	2.31
	3.18	3.31	2.27	Watch
	3.1	3	2.25
	3.29	3.27	2.31	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.16 ↑ (2.28)	3.2 ↑ (3.05)	2.29 ↓ (3.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cusco
29.7%

Draw
29.3%

Estudiantes La Plata
40.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.6%

30.3%

29.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.2%

30.7%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cusco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cusco's form might have worsened.

Estudiantes La Plata has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Estudiantes La Plata's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cusco than the current prediction. (+11.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cusco, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estudiantes La Plata than the current prediction. (-12.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Estudiantes La Plata, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	37.5%	62.5%

Cusco - Estudiantes La Plata Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Estudiantes will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Estudiantes (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Diaz P. (G) 24. Ruidias M. 8. Fuentes A. 6. Ampuero A. 21. Zevallos J. 88. Soto D. 16. Valenzuela O. 22. Colitto L. 10. Colman I. (C) 7. Manzaneda J. 9. Callejo F.	16. Muslera F. (G) 20. Meza E. 14. Gonzalez Pirez L. 24. Palacios T. 13. Benedetti G. 8. Gabriel Neves 32. Amondarain M. 22. Castro A. 29. Perez Fabricio 9. Carrillo G. (C) 10. Palacios T.
Substitutes
17. Ali Gutierrez J. D. 32. Astudillo J. 5. Aucca M. 15. Bolivar J. 27. Carabajal G. 37. Choi G. 14. Diez C. 2. Gamarra C. 77. Herrera Joel 26. Silva N. 11. Tevez J. 13. Vidal A. (G)	28. Aguirre B. 27. Alario L. 18. Cetre E. 39. Cornejo L. 23. Dominguez F. 11. Farias F. 26. Funes Mori R. 1. Iacovich F. (G) 40. Mancuso E. 4. Nunez S. 36. Pereyra J. 7. Sosa J.
Coaches
Orfila A.	Medina A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
37', 1 - 0, Colitto L. ⚽,
41', Castro A. 🟨,
45', Fuentes A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
58', 1 - 1, Palacios T. ⚽, Amondarain M. (A),
61', Colitto L. ↓, Silva N. ↑,
61', Colman I. ↓, Tevez J. ↑,
65', Carrillo G. ↓, Farias F. ↑,
65', Perez Fabricio ↓, Cetre E. ↑,
75', Soto D. ↓, Carabajal G. ↑,
76', Castro A. ↓, Mancuso E. ↑,
85', Meza E. ↓, Alario L. ↑,
85', Palacios T. ↓, Nunez S. ↑,
85', Farias F. 🟨,
86', Ruidias M. ↓, Bolivar J. ↑,
89', Gabriel Neves 🟨,

Preview

Cusco has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Estudiantes is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Estudiantes may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Estudiantes might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Estudiantes: Arzamendia S. (Knee Injury) Piovi L. (Yellow Cards)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Cusco won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:5. (average 0.3:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, Cusco won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

Estudiantes L.P.: 5.48%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cusco FC
Peruvian Liga 1
03.05.26	Sporting Cristal - Cusco	2:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
30.04.26	Independiente Medellín - Cusco	1:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
26.04.26	Cusco - Sport Huancayo	2:1 ✺
22.04.26	Cusco - Cajamarca	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Alianza Lima - Cusco	8:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TLWWL
- Estudiantes La Plata
Argentinian Liga Profesional
02.05.26	Platense - Estudiantes La Plata	0:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
29.04.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Flamengo	1:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
25.04.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Talleres de Córdoba	0:0 ✺
18.04.26	Instituto Córdoba - Estudiantes La Plata	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.04.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Cusco	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
14.04.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Cusco	2:1
01.05.18	Cusco - Estudiantes La Plata	0:0
14.03.18	Estudiantes La Plata - Cusco	3:0

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