Match Info

Saudi Professional League - Round 25

Date: 5 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium (Abha)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	JACO Middle East
Brazil	Canal GOAT
China	QQ Sports
Saudi-arabia	Thmanyah App, Thmanyah


	Damac		Al-Riyadh

	1	X	2
	2.3	2.9	2.9
	2.25	2.98	3.25
	2.43	3	3.39
	2.26	3.16	3.29	Watch
	2.25	2.75	3.1
	2.26	2.77	3.38	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↑ (2.26)	2.93 ↓ (3.24)	3.22 ↑ (3.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Damac
40.1%

Draw
31.4%

Al-Riyadh
28.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.3%

28.8%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

27.5%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Damac has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Al-Riyadh has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Damac than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Riyadh than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	42.9%	0%

Damac - Al Riyadh Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Damac will win (votes: 8 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 42.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Damac: 31.2% – 83%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Al-Riyadh (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Damac (1.44) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Damac (votes: 1 - 50%). Al-Riyadh (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kewin (G) 12. Al Hawsawi S. 15. Harkass J. 3. Bedrane A. (C) 13. Al Obaid A. 17. Al Salkhadi M. 8. Vada V. 6. Abdullah T. 2. Sylla M. 14. Okita J. 11. Meite Y.	82. Borjan M. (G) 7. Al Boardi O. 4. Gonzalez S. 23. Al Khaibari M. 5. Barbet Y. 80. Al Khaibari A. I. (C) 10. Okou T. 27. Lekhal V. 20. Toze 77. Antunes L. 9. Sylla M.
Substitutes
30. Al Ghamdi N. (G) 22. Al Khaibre A. R. 7. Al Qahtani A. 18. Al Saadi N. 88. Al Samiri K. 80. Naji Y. 5. Rabea H. 26. Sharahili R.	11. Al Absi K. 88. Al Shehri Y. 35. Al Siyahi A. 94. Al Sobhi F. 97. Fida E. (G) 99. Haroun S. 17. Hassoun A. 12. Hazazi S. 87. Tambakti M. H.
Coaches
Fabio Carille	Dulac M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
35', 1 - 0, Okita J. ⚽, Harkass J. (A),
40', Al Hawsawi S. 🟨,
45', Lekhal V. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Meite Y. 🟨,
53', 2 - 0, Vada V. ⚽, Al Salkhadi M. (A),
60', 3 - 0, Al Hawsawi S. ⚽, Al Obaid A. (A),
61', Sylla M. ↓, Haroun S. ↑,
61', Barbet Y. ↓, Al Absi K. ↑,
62', Al Salkhadi M. ↓, Al Qahtani A. ↑,
72', Antunes L. ↓, Al Shehri Y. ↑,
78', Gonzalez S. ↓, Al Siyahi A. ↑,
79', Okita J. ↓, Al Samiri K. ↑,
81', Harkass J. 🟨,
87', Al Hawsawi S. ↓, Rabea H. ↑,
87', Bedrane A. ↓, Al Khaibre A. R. ↑,
87', Vada V. ↓, Al Saadi N. ↑,
89', Rabea H. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Damac won 0.

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Damac could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Damac won 0 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Damac won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:6. (average 1.7:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Al Riyadh	7	2	2	3	8:16	-8	8

Last Results with these Odds

Damac - the odds 2.26 are the expected chance of winning is 41.29%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Al-Riyadh - the odds 3.12 are the expected chance of winning is 29.91%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Damac FC
Saudi Professional League
26.02.26	Al Fateh - Damac	1:1 ✺
23.02.26	Damac - Al-Ahli Jeddah	0:1 ✺
20.02.26	Damac - Al-Shabab Riyadh	1:3 ✺
12.02.26	Damac - Al-Taawoun	2:1 ✺
06.02.26	Al-Ettifaq Dammam - Damac	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 TLLWL
- Al-Riyadh SC
Saudi Professional League
26.02.26	Al-Riyadh - Al-Ahli Jeddah	0:1 ✺
23.02.26	Al-Shabab Riyadh - Al-Riyadh	3:1 ✺
19.02.26	Al-Kholood - Al-Riyadh	0:2 ✺
14.02.26	Al-Riyadh - Al-Khaleej	1:1 ✺
06.02.26	Neom - Al-Riyadh	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Saudi Professional League
06.11.25	Al-Riyadh - Damac	1:1
05.04.25	Al-Riyadh - Damac	0:0
01.11.24	Damac - Al-Riyadh	2:2
28.12.23	Al-Riyadh - Damac	1:0
17.08.23	Damac - Al-Riyadh	2:2
Saudi Division 1
08.04.16	Damac - Al-Riyadh	1:2
05.12.15	Al-Riyadh - Damac	1:1

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