Match Info

NPL Victoria - Round 11

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: George Andrews Reserve (Melbourne)


	Dandenong Thunder		Preston Lions

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.72	3.45	2.18	Watch
	2.84	3.62	2.28
	7.67	4.30	1.40	Watch
	2.7	3.3	2.25
	2.75	3.46	2.23	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.74 ↑ (2.42)	3.63 ↑ (3.47)	2.07 ↓ (2.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dandenong Thunder
26.1%

Draw
26.9%

Preston Lions
47.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.8%

26.3%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.2%

26%

35.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dandenong Thunder has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Dandenong Thunder's form might have worsened.

Preston Lions has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Preston Lions's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dandenong Thunder than the current prediction. (+12.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Dandenong Thunder, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Preston Lions than the current prediction. (-11.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Preston Lions, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Dandenong Thunder - Preston Lions Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
34', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 10 and 9).

Dandenong Thunder is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Preston Lions's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Preston Lions may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Dandenong Thunder won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Dandenong Thunder won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dandenong Thunder
Australian NPL Victoria
24.04.26	Dandenong City - Dandenong Thunder	0:1 ✺
18.04.26	Altona Magic - Dandenong Thunder	2:4 ✺
11.04.26	Dandenong Thunder - Green Gully	1:1 ✺
27.03.26	Bentleigh Greens - Dandenong Thunder	2:1 ✺
21.03.26	Dandenong Thunder - South Melbourne	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 WWTLW
- Preston Lions
Australian NPL Victoria
24.04.26	Green Gully - Preston Lions	0:4 ✺
17.04.26	Bentleigh Greens - Preston Lions	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Preston Lions - South Melbourne	0:3 ✺
27.03.26	Hume City - Preston Lions	3:2 ✺
20.03.26	Preston Lions - Avondale	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NPL Victoria
23.08.25	Preston Lions - Dandenong Thunder	2:0
10.05.25	Dandenong Thunder - Preston Lions	3:0

Dandenong Thunder - Preston Lions: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide