Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 13

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Jardines del Hipódromo María Mincheff de Lazaroff (Montevideo)

Referee: Varela E. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Brazil	Disney+
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Uruguay	Disney+, VTV+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Danubio		River Plate Montevideo

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.9	4	Watch
	1.78	3.5	4.15
	1.76	3.51	4.76
	1.86	3.48	3.84	Watch
	1.78	3.47	4.57	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↓ (1.86)	3.57 ↑ (3.48)	4.26 ↑ (3.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Danubio
52.1%

Draw
26.1%

River Plate Montevideo
21.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.5%

26.5%

24%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.9%

25.8%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Danubio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

River Plate Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Danubio than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for River Plate Montevideo than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Danubio - River Plate Montevideo Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Danubio (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Danubio will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Goicoechea M. (G) 2. Velazquez E. 8. Rabino R. 23. Gonzalez M. 18. Mayada C. 35. Pais N. 10. Peralta M. 11. Sanseviero L. 22. Brandao 28. Femia E. 30. Fernandez S.	1. Frascarelli D. (C) 6. Moreira M. 3. Gissi D. 31. Olmos T. 2. Perez F. 22. Alfonso M. 14. De Leon F. 20. Lemos L. 10. Vera A. 19. Pollero R. 17. Escobar M.
Substitutes
36. Azambuja N. 38. Cardozo E. 14. Fernandez J. 40. Macchi E. 32. Martinez K. (G) 9. Nunez S. 7. Pintos I. 19. Romero S. 33. Sanchez V. 17. Velazquez A.	29. Camejo L. 32. Chavero J. 25. Correa Gonzalez F. N. (G) 9. Correa T. 26. dos Santos N. 28. Gonzalez L. 18. Lopez I. 27. Lopez I. 30. Pintado R. 33. Triver F.
Coaches
Matosas G.	Salazar R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', De Leon F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
54', Brandao 🟨,
62', Femia E. ↓, Cardozo E. ↑,
62', Escobar M. ↓, Camejo L. ↑,
63', 0 - 1, Pollero R. ⚽,
70', Peralta M. ↓, Velazquez A. ↑,
70', Brandao ↓, Azambuja N. ↑,
77', Sanseviero L. ↓, Nunez S. ↑,
77', Rabino R. ↓, Fernandez J. ↑,
78', Pollero R. ↓, Lopez I. ↑,
82', Frascarelli D. 🟨,
83', De Leon F. ↓, Correa T. ↑,
84', Alfonso M. ↓, Pintado R. ↑,
90+7', 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 10 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Danubio won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

River Plate may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Danubio is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Danubio won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 21:19. (average 1.1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Danubio won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:8. (average 1:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Danubio FC
Uruguayan Primera Division
17.10.25	Boston River - Danubio	0:0 ✺
12.10.25	Danubio - Nacional Montevideo	0:0 ✺
05.10.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Danubio	2:0 ✺
28.09.25	Danubio - Montevideo City Torque	2:0 ✺
19.09.25	Defensor Sporting - Danubio	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 TTLWL
- River Plate Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
19.10.25	River Plate Montevideo - Cerro Largo	1:1 ✺
12.10.25	Juventud de Las Piedras - River Plate Montevideo	1:2 ✺
03.10.25	River Plate Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	0:1 ✺
28.09.25	Plaza Colonia - River Plate Montevideo	1:1 ✺
21.09.25	River Plate Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 TWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
26.04.25	River Plate Montevideo - Danubio	1:0
15.09.24	Danubio - River Plate Montevideo	3:0
02.03.24	River Plate Montevideo - Danubio	1:0
11.11.23	Danubio - River Plate Montevideo	0:0
22.07.23	Danubio - River Plate Montevideo	0:0
31.03.23	River Plate Montevideo - Danubio	2:1
24.09.22	Danubio - River Plate Montevideo	3:0

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