Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 10

Date: 3 October 2025, Friday

Location: Parque Federico Omar Saroldi (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	River Plate Montevideo		Liverpool Montevideo

	1	X	2
	5.5	3.6	1.6	Watch
	4.6	3.75	1.63
	4.95	3.65	1.62
	5.19	3.89	1.68
	5.23	3.52	1.68	Watch
	5.58	3.65	1.63	Watch
	5	3.7	1.64
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.15 ↑ (4.77)	3.68 ↑ (3.46)	1.64 ↓ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

River Plate Montevideo
18.1%

Draw
25.3%

Liverpool Montevideo
56.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.5%

26.8%

53.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.5%

26.8%

53.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

River Plate Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Liverpool Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for River Plate Montevideo than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Liverpool Montevideo than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26.7%	0%	73.3%

River Plate Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. River Plate will win (votes: 4 - 26.7%). Liverpool will win (votes: 11 - 73.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Liverpool: 50.9% – 95.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. River Plate (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Liverpool (votes: 5 - 62.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Correa Gonzalez F. N. (G) 4. Pertusatti Gonzalez L. O. 3. Gissi D. 13. Almeida C. (C) 6. Moreira M. 20. Lemos L. 15. Jourdan E. 14. De Leon F. 10. Vera A. 18. Lopez I. 19. Pollero R.	21. Lentinelly S. (G) 2. Rea M. 23. Castillo E. 24. Amaro K. 32. Bregante F. 20. Rabunal M. 16. Acosta L. 8. Napoli G. 11. Castro M. 7. Vallejo N. 10. Hernandez A.
Substitutes
22. Alfonso M. 32. Chavero J. 9. Correa T. 23. Crespo E. 12. De Los Santo A. 17. Escobar M. 31. Olmos T. 2. Perez F. 30. Sanchez D. 33. Triver F.	26. Cabral N. 5. Catarozzi F. 19. Forclaz E. 9. Machado R. 25. Marquez E. (G) 80. Mir M. 4. Perdomo F. 17. Soria N. 3. Suarez L. 31. Wasilewsky L.
Coaches
Salazar R.	Papa J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
26', Acosta L. 🟥,
30', 0 - 1, Hernandez A. ⚽,
45+1', Gissi D. 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Castro M. ↓, Catarozzi F. ↑,
46', Lopez I. ↓, Olmos T. ↑,
51', Pertusatti Gonzalez L. O. 🟨,
60', Jourdan E. ↓, Sanchez D. ↑,
75', Napoli G. ↓, Mir M. ↑,
76', Vera A. ↓, Cabrera F. ↑,
76', Moreira M. ↓, Alfonso M. ↑,
82', Lemos L. 🟨,
82', Sanchez D. 🟥,
85', Amaro K. 🟨,
86', Pertusatti Gonzalez L. O. ↓, Escobar M. ↑,
86', Hernandez A. ↓, Machado R. ↑,
87', De Leon F. 🟨,
90+3', Vallejo N. ↓, Suarez L. ↑,
90+3', Bregante F. ↓, Soria N. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, River Plate won 1.

River Plate has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Liverpool's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Liverpool is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, River Plate won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 31:25. (average 1.6:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, River Plate won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:7. (average 1.8:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- River Plate Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
28.09.25	Plaza Colonia - River Plate Montevideo	1:1 ✺
21.09.25	River Plate Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	2:3 ✺
14.09.25	River Plate Montevideo - Progreso	0:0 ✺
06.09.25	Boston River - River Plate Montevideo	2:0 ✺
30.08.25	River Plate Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 TLTLL
- Liverpool Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
27.09.25	Liverpool Montevideo - Boston River	2:1 ✺
20.09.25	Nacional Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	3:1 ✺
13.09.25	Liverpool Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:2 ✺
Uruguay Copa
10.09.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	2:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
07.09.25	Montevideo City Torque - Liverpool Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
22.06.25	River Plate Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	2:1
06.04.25	Liverpool Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	0:0
04.10.24	River Plate Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	1:1
30.03.24	Liverpool Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	1:1
06.12.23	Liverpool Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	2:1
13.05.23	River Plate Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	2:0
13.10.22	River Plate Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	0:1

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