Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 10

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Jardines del Hipódromo María Mincheff de Lazaroff (Montevideo)

Referee: Heras H. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Danubio		Montevideo City Torque

	1	X	2
	2.2	2.9	3	Watch
	2.2	3.05	3.2
	2.37	3.1	3.36
	2.23	3.19	3.32	Watch
	2.25	2.9	3.25
	2.33	3.07	3.18	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↓ (3.3)	3.04 ↓ (3.18)	3.22 ↑ (2.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Danubio
40.8%

Draw
30.5%

Montevideo City Torque
28.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.3%

29.4%

42.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.5%

28.5%

43.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Danubio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Danubio's performance.

Montevideo City Torque has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Montevideo City Torque might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Danubio than the current prediction. (-13.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Danubio that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montevideo City Torque than the current prediction. (+14.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Montevideo City Torque could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	66.7%	0%

Danubio - Montevideo City Torque Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Danubio will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Goicoechea M. (C) 40. Balatti F. 3. Pereyra J. 2. Velazquez E. 18. Mayada C. 16. Rossi I. 8. Rodriguez S. 28. Femia E. 10. Peralta M. 7. Cabrera E. 21. Azambuja N.	1. Torgnascioli F. (C) 17. Aguero E. 3. Silva K. 27. Taran J. 15. Busquets E. 19. Guzman D. 14. Kociubinski B. 32. Caceres S. 7. Andrade L. 11. Da Silva N. 23. Dure L.
Substitutes
30. Fernandez S. 20. Ferreira M. 15. Figueroa E. 33. Garcia D. 29. Jourdan M. 32. Martinez K. (G) 14. Pereira B. 26. Piriz D. 4. Rinaldi M. 17. Velazquez A.	24. Kagelmacher G. 18. Lecchini R. 20. Montes G. 10. Obregon E. 5. Pizzichillo F. 30. Quintana J. 13. Rodriguez G. (G) 9. Rodriguez S. 8. Siles P. 26. Silvera F.
Coaches
Monarriz D.	Mendez M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', Cabrera E. 🟨,
31', Andrade L. 🟨,
33', Pereyra J. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 0, Cabrera E. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Caceres S. ↓, Montes G. ↑,
46', Busquets E. ↓, Silvera F. ↑,
46', Andrade L. ↓, Obregon E. ↑,
55', Obregon E. 🟨,
61', Da Silva N. ↓, Rodriguez S. ↑,
66', Guzman D. ↓, Lecchini R. ↑,
67', Femia E. ↓, Fernandez S. ↑,
67', Peralta M. ↓, Ferreira M. ↑,
74', Cabrera E. ↓, Velazquez A. ↑,
76', Rossi I. 🟨,
81', Balatti F. 🟨,
84', Azambuja N. ↓, Figueroa E. ↑,
90', 1 - 1, Aguero E. ⚽,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 11 and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Danubio won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Danubio won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 20:14. (average 1.7:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Danubio won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:10. (average 1.7:1.4).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Montevideo City	9	6	1	2	19:10	9	19
13	Danubio	9	1	4	4	4:10	-6	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Danubio FC
Uruguayan Primera Division
30.03.26	Cerro Largo - Danubio	2:0 ✺
26.03.26	Danubio - Defensor Sporting	0:0 ✺
21.03.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Danubio	2:1 ✺
16.03.26	Danubio - Juventud de Las Piedras	4:1 ✺
07.03.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Danubio	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LTLWT
- Montevideo City Torque
Uruguayan Primera Division
28.03.26	Montevideo City Torque - Nacional Montevideo	2:3 ✺
24.03.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Montevideo City Torque	1:0 ✺
21.03.26	Montevideo City Torque - Central Español	2:1 ✺
16.03.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Montevideo City Torque	0:0 ✺
09.03.26	Cerro Largo - Montevideo City Torque	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
28.09.25	Danubio - Montevideo City Torque	2:0
07.06.25	Danubio - Montevideo City Torque	3:2
30.03.25	Montevideo City Torque - Danubio	1:1
20.08.23	Danubio - Montevideo City Torque	0:1
16.06.23	Danubio - Montevideo City Torque	1:0
05.02.23	Montevideo City Torque - Danubio	1:1
19.08.22	Danubio - Montevideo City Torque	3:2

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