Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 2

Date: 10 April 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello (Gobernador Julio A. Costa)

Referee: Menendez A. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 4
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 3
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
World	Disney+


	Defensa y Justicia		Vitória Salvador

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.2	4.75	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3.4
	1.9	3.2	4.33	Watch
	1.96	3.18	4.47	Watch
	2.15	2.9	3.5	Watch
	1.86	3.19	4.93	Watch
	1.9	3.2	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↓ (2.53)	3.14 ↑ (3.06)	4.24 ↑ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Defensa y Justicia
47.8%

Draw
30%

Vitória Salvador
22.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37%

30.5%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37%

30.5%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Defensa y Justicia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Defensa y Justicia's performance.

Vitória Salvador has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Vitória Salvador might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Defensa y Justicia than the current prediction. (-10.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Defensa y Justicia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitória Salvador than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vitória Salvador could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Defensa y Justicia - Vitória Salvador Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Defensa y Justicia will win (votes: 4 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Defensa y Justicia: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Defensa y Justicia (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Bologna E. (G) 14. Cannavo E. 6. Ferreira L. 30. Balanta K. 15. Perez D. 5. Gutierrez K. 8. Perez C. 26. Gonzalez F. 10. Molinas A. 16. Larralde V. 9. Miritello J. B. (C)	1. Lucas Arcanjo (G) 2. Claudinho 5. Lucas Halter (C) 3. Ze Marcos 83. Jamerson 33. Erick 29. Willian Oliveira 44. Baralhas 30. Matheuzinho 99. Carlinhos 39. Janderson
Substitutes
34. Delgado R. 29. Gonzalez G. 24. Gonzalez M. 17. Hausch A. 1. Masuero F. (G) 21. Miranda M. 7. Osorio A. 37. Ramirez M. 35. Schamine B. 22. Sosa S. 3. Soto A. 13. Souto L.	27. Caceres R. 96. Carlos Eduardo 43. Edu 23. Fabricio 35. Fintelman (G) 7. Gustavo Silva 22. Lucas Braga 77. Neris 11. Osvaldo 6. Pepe 28. Ricardo Ryller 10. Wellington Rato
Coaches
de Muner P.	Thiago Carpini

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
51', Gutierrez K. 🟨,
63', Carlinhos ↓, Carlos Eduardo ↑,
63', Erick ↓, Wellington Rato ↑,
63', Molinas A. ↓, Ramirez M. ↑,
75', Gonzalez F. ↓, Miranda M. ↑,
75', Miritello J. B. ↓, Osorio A. ↑,
75', Janderson ↓, Gustavo Silva ↑,
78', Ze Marcos 🟨,
84', Baralhas ↓, Ricardo Ryller ↑,
84', Matheuzinho ↓, Fabricio ↑,
86', Larralde V. ↓, Gonzalez G. ↑,

Preview

One and the other team are in an unacceptable form.

Vitória could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Defensa y Justicia will have a mini benefit in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Defensa y Justicia
Argentinian Liga Profesional
06.04.25	Argentinos Juniors - Defensa y Justicia	4:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
03.04.25	Cerro Largo - Defensa y Justicia	0:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
28.03.25	Defensa y Justicia - Tigre	1:2 ✺
16.03.25	Boca Juniors - Defensa y Justicia	4:0 ✺
09.03.25	Defensa y Justicia - Estudiantes La Plata	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LTLLW
- EC Vitória Salvador
Brazilian Serie A
06.04.25	Vitória Salvador - Flamengo	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
02.04.25	Vitória Salvador - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
29.03.25	Juventude - Vitória Salvador	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
26.03.25	Moto Club de São Luís - Vitória Salvador	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
23.03.25	Vitória Salvador - Bahia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LTLTT

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