Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 1

Date: 29 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Alfredo Jaconi (Caxias do Sul)

Referee: Zanovelli P. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Juventude		Vitória Salvador

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.1	3.6	Watch
	2.25	3.2	3.3
	2.25	3.1	3.4	Watch
	2.13	3.32	3.6
	2.26	3.16	3.43	Watch
	2.05	3.25	3.6
	2.23	3.28	3.35	Watch
	2.25	3.1	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↑ (2.03)	3.19 ↓ (3.34)	3.46 ↓ (3.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Juventude
42.9%

Draw
29.7%

Vitória Salvador
27.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.5%

28.3%

25.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.8%

29.7%

24%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Juventude has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Vitória Salvador has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Juventude than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Juventude, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitória Salvador than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	62.5%	25%

Juventude - Vitória Salvador Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Juventude will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Vitória will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Marcao (G) 2. Ewerthon 23. Abner 3. Adriano Martins 28. Alan Ruschel (C) 8. Giraldo D. 16. Jadson 44. Mandaca 27. Batalla E. 19. Gabriel Taliari 97. Enio	21. Gabriel (G) 2. Claudinho 5. Lucas Halter (C) 77. Neris 83. Jamerson 28. Ricardo 8. Ronald Lopes 6. Pepe 10. Wellington Rato 39. Janderson 7. Gustavo Mosquito
Substitutes
4. Angel W. 88. Davi Goes 6. Felipinho 20. Jean Carlos 47. Marcos Paulo 17. Matheus Babi 7. Mauricio Garcez 10. Nene 37. Petterson 93. Reginaldo 21. Ruan Carneiro (G) 98. Vitor Pernambuco	27. Caceres R. 43. Edu 33. Erick 23. Fabricio 76. Felipe Cardoso 16. Hugo 38. Leo Pereira 1. Lucas Arcanjo (G) 22. Lucas Braga 17. Thiaguinho 29. Willian Oliveira 3. Ze Marcos
Coaches
Fabio Matias	Thiago Carpini

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Gabriel Taliari ⚽, Abner (A),
26', Ronald Lopes 🟨,
37', Jadson 🟨,
39', Enio 🟨,
42', Neris 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Gustavo Mosquito ↓, Leo Pereira ↑,
46', Ronald Lopes ↓, Erick ↑,
46', Neris ↓, Ze Marcos ↑,
50', Lucas Halter 🟨,
51', 2 - 0, Gabriel Taliari ⚽,
68', Batalla E. 🟨,
68', Ewerthon ↓, Reginaldo ↑,
68', Enio ↓, Petterson ↑,
68', Gabriel Taliari ↓, Mauricio Garcez ↑,
70', Ricardo 🟨,
73', Wellington Rato ↓, Fabricio ↑,
74', Pepe ↓, Willian Oliveira ↑,
81', Alan Ruschel ↓, Felipinho ↑,
89', Batalla E. ↓, Vitor Pernambuco ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Juventude won 1.

Juventude is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Vitória is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Juventude could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Juventude have a series of guest games.

Juventude will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Juventude: Rodrigo Sam (Injury)

Last 6 head-to-head matches Juventude won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3:4 (average 0.5:0.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Juventude won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:2 (average 1:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Juventude
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
01.03.25	Juventude - Grêmio	2:2 penalties ✺
Copa do Brasil
25.02.25	Maringá - Juventude	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
22.02.25	Grêmio - Juventude	2:1 ✺
15.02.25	EC Pelotas - Juventude	2:3 ✺
12.02.25	Avenida - Juventude	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LLLWT
- EC Vitória Salvador
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
26.03.25	Moto Club de São Luís - Vitória Salvador	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
23.03.25	Vitória Salvador - Bahia	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
19.03.25	Vitória Salvador - Sport Recife	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
16.03.25	Bahia - Vitória Salvador	2:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
12.03.25	Vitória Salvador - Náutico Capibaribe	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
21.09.24	Vitória Salvador - Juventude	1:0
11.06.24	Juventude - Vitória Salvador	1:1
Brazilian Serie B
29.10.23	Vitória Salvador - Juventude	0:0
02.07.23	Juventude - Vitória Salvador	1:0
15.12.20	Vitória Salvador - Juventude	1:0
14.09.20	Juventude - Vitória Salvador	1:1

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