Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 16

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Juan Pasquale (Belgrano)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	LPF Play


	Defensores de Belgrano		San Telmo

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.25	5	Watch
	1.88	3.1	4.1
	1.78	3.15	4.75	Watch
	1.81	3.31	5.28
	1.77	3.32	5.1	Watch
	1.8	3.1	4.6
	1.76	3.1	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↓ (1.93)	3.19 ↑ (3.03)	4.8 ↑ (4.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Defensores de Belgrano
51.7%

Draw
29.1%

San Telmo
19.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.4%

30.8%

20.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.1%

32.5%

19.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Defensores de Belgrano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

San Telmo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Defensores de Belgrano than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Telmo than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	18.2%	0%

Defensores de Belgrano - San Telmo Predictions

Users Predictions: Defensores de Belgrano will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Medina A. (G) 4. Gomez B. 2. De Tomasso J. 6. Vaquer N. 3. Perez I. 5. Gutierrez I. 8. Benitez A. 10. Ciccolini L. 11. Moyano P. 7. Aguirre E. (C) 9. Gonzalez E.	1. Enrico J. C. (G) 4. Motroni J. 2. Pollacchi L. (C) 6. Britez L. 3. Gamarra R. 8. Uriburu R. 5. Britez E. 10. Peralta E. 7. Gonzalez J. 9. Batallini M. 11. Porto J.
Substitutes
19. Aquilino G. 20. Dellarossa J. 17. Garcia D. 16. Jerez Silva L. 14. Magallanes D. 12. Nocetti N. (G) 13. Perez A. 15. Sanchez F. 18. Tcherkaski F.	13. Gonzalez M. 16. Iritier J. 17. Larthirigoyen I. 15. Ledesma M. I. 14. Paredes G. 12. Ratalin G. (G) 18. Salerno M. 19. Tisera F. 20. Zurbriggen J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', Gamarra R. 🟨,
25', Uriburu R. 🟨,
34', Britez E. 🟨,
39', Vaquer N. 🟨,
45+3', 1 - 0, Ciccolini L. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Peralta E. ↓, Paredes G. ↑,
46', Gonzalez J. ↓, Zurbriggen J. ↑,
46', Benitez A. ↓, Jerez Silva L. ↑,
58', Gamarra R. ↓, Iritier J. ↑,
58', Porto J. ↓, Salerno M. ↑,
68', Batallini M. ↓, Tisera F. ↑,
73', Moyano P. ↓, Sanchez F. ↑,
76', Perez I. 🟨,
80', Ciccolini L. ↓, Garcia D. ↑,
80', Gonzalez E. ↓, Aquilino G. ↑,
89', Paredes G. 🟨,
90+2', Aguirre E. ↓, Magallanes D. ↑,
90+4', Garcia D. 🟨,
90+5', Tisera F. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 11 and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Defensores won 3.

Defensores has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, San Telmo has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Defensores is the team to beat.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Defensores won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:11. (average 1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Defensores won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 0.9:0.9).

Last Results with these Odds

San Telmo - the odds 4.48 are the expected chance of winning is 20.83%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Defensores de Belgrano
Argentinian Primera Nacional
24.05.26	Acassuso - Defensores de Belgrano	1:0 ✺
18.05.26	Defensores de Belgrano - Chaco For Ever	0:0 ✺
11.05.26	Ferro Carril Oeste - Defensores de Belgrano	2:1 ✺
02.05.26	Defensores de Belgrano - Central Norte	1:1 ✺
26.04.26	Deportivo Madryn - Defensores de Belgrano	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LTLTL
- CA San Telmo
Argentinian Primera Nacional
23.05.26	San Telmo - Ciudad de Bolívar	0:1 ✺
16.05.26	Almirante Brown - San Telmo	0:0 ✺
09.05.26	San Telmo - Mitre	0:0 ✺
02.05.26	Estudiantes de Caseros - San Telmo	1:1 ✺
25.04.26	San Telmo - All Boys	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 LTTTW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
30.07.25	Defensores de Belgrano - San Telmo	1:2
23.02.25	San Telmo - Defensores de Belgrano	0:3
18.08.24	San Telmo - Defensores de Belgrano	1:2
01.04.24	Defensores de Belgrano - San Telmo	0:1
18.06.23	Defensores de Belgrano - San Telmo	2:0
11.02.23	San Telmo - Defensores de Belgrano	2:2
14.08.22	Defensores de Belgrano - San Telmo	0:0

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