Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 13

Date: 11 May 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Arquitecto Ricardo Etcheverry (Buenos Aires)


	Ferro Carril Oeste		Defensores de Belgrano

	1	X	2
	1.68	2.82	5.25	Watch
	1.98	2.85	4.1
	1.8	2.92	5.15	Watch
	1.82	3.06	5.87
	1.84	2.86	5.85	Watch
	1.73	2.88	5
	1.74	2.92	5.47	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (2.09)	2.9 ↑ (2.64)	5.24 ↑ (4.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferro Carril Oeste
50.9%

Draw
31.6%

Defensores de Belgrano
17.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.5%

35.2%

20.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6%

35.1%

20.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferro Carril Oeste has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ferro Carril Oeste's performance.

Defensores de Belgrano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferro Carril Oeste than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ferro Carril Oeste that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Defensores de Belgrano than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

Ferro Carril Oeste - Defensores de Belgrano Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Ferro Carril will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Defensores will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ruiz L. (G) 4. Tevez F. 2. Orellana J. 6. Canto G. 3. Ozuna E. 8. Kabalin M. 5. Obradovich F. 10. Hoyos E. 7. Gonzalez A. 9. Parisi L. 11. Dening E.	1. Medina A. (G) 4. Gomez B. 2. Gamarra G. 6. Perez A. 3. Sanchez F. 8. De Tomasso J. (C) 5. Gutierrez I. 10. Benitez A. 11. Ciccolini L. 7. Aguirre E. 9. Dellarossa J.
Substitutes
20. Acosta M. 12. Alvarez 18. Campos M. 16. Castellani G. 14. Corda S. 17. Garcia F. 19. Menendez J. 15. Olguin G. 13. Taron M.	19. Aquilino G. 18. Garcia D. 17. Gomez Barrionuevo M. 15. Jerez Silva L. 16. Magallanes D. 14. Monteagudo J. 20. Moyano P. 12. Nocetti N. (G) 13. Vaquer N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', De Tomasso J. 🟨,
24', Sanchez F. 🟨,
34', 1 - 0, Gonzalez A. ⚽,
45', Tevez F. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 1, Dellarossa J. ⚽, Benitez A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
64', Hoyos E. ↓, Castellani G. ↑,
65', 2 - 1, Parisi L. ⚽,
71', Ciccolini L. ↓, Moyano P. ↑,
71', Gamarra G. ↓, Garcia D. ↑,
81', Kabalin M. ↓, Olguin G. ↑,
81', Parisi L. ↓, Garcia F. ↑,
82', Sanchez F. ↓, Aquilino G. ↑,
88', Benitez A. ↓, Gomez Barrionuevo M. ↑,
89', Castellani G. 🟨,
89', Aguirre E. 🟨,
90+3', Dening E. ↓, Campos M. ↑,
90+3', Gonzalez A. ↓, Corda S. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 9).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Ferro Carril may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Ferro Carril is the team to beat.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Ferro Carril won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:5. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Ferro Carril won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Ferro Carril Oeste - the odds 2.09 are the expected chance of winning is 44.54%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ferro Carril Oeste
Argentinian Primera Nacional
03.05.26	Ciudad de Bolívar - Ferro Carril Oeste	2:4 ✺
28.04.26	Ferro Carril Oeste - Almirante Brown	0:1 ✺
19.04.26	Mitre - Ferro Carril Oeste	0:1 ✺
12.04.26	Ferro Carril Oeste - Estudiantes de Caseros	0:1 ✺
04.04.26	All Boys - Ferro Carril Oeste	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 WLWLT
- Defensores de Belgrano
Argentinian Primera Nacional
02.05.26	Defensores de Belgrano - Central Norte	1:1 ✺
26.04.26	Deportivo Madryn - Defensores de Belgrano	2:1 ✺
19.04.26	Racing de Córdoba - Defensores de Belgrano	3:0 ✺
12.04.26	Defensores de Belgrano - Ciudad de Bolívar	0:0 ✺
05.04.26	Almirante Brown - Defensores de Belgrano	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 TLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
25.04.22	Defensores de Belgrano - Ferro Carril Oeste	2:2
31.10.21	Defensores de Belgrano - Ferro Carril Oeste	0:2
04.07.21	Ferro Carril Oeste - Defensores de Belgrano	1:1
07.12.18	Defensores de Belgrano - Ferro Carril Oeste	2:0

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