Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 11

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Abel Sastre (Puerto Madryn)


	Deportivo Madryn		Defensores de Belgrano

	1	X	2
	1.96	3.1	4.1	Watch
	2.02	2.98	3.9
	2.06	3.1	4.27
	2.03	2.98	4.23	Watch
	2.05	2.8	3.9
	1.96	2.88	4.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↓ (2.17)	2.97 ↑ (2.76)	4.09 ↑ (4.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Madryn
46.1%

Draw
31.2%

Defensores de Belgrano
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.1%

33.9%

23.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

33.1%

22.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Madryn has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Defensores de Belgrano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Madryn than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Defensores de Belgrano than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Deportivo Madryn - Defensores de Belgrano Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Deportivo Madryn (1.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Defensores (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportivo Madryn (votes: 1 - 50%). Defensores (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bonnin Y. (C) 4. Sosa A. 2. Giacopuzzi F. 6. Ortiz N. D. 3. Ayala R. 8. Meli M. 5. Recalde F. 10. Solis N. 7. Servetto N. 9. Silba L. 11. Montagna E.	12. Nocetti N. (G) 4. Magallanes D. 2. Perez A. 6. Gamarra G. 3. Perez I. 8. De Tomasso J. 5. Gutierrez I. 10. Benitez A. 11. Moyano P. 7. Aguirre E. (C) 9. Gonzalez E.
Substitutes
17. Barrientos N. 20. Bonacci P. 15. Calleros Y. 14. Cosi J. 19. Cuero M. 13. Gutierrez A. 18. Machado C. 12. Montero M. (G) 16. Ospitaleche F.	20. Aquilino G. 17. Ciccolini L. . Daus L. (G) 19. Dellarossa J. 16. Gomez B. 15. Jerez Silva L. 14. Monteagudo J. 13. Vaquer N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Silba L. ⚽,
35', Perez I. 🟨,
41', Benitez A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Perez I. ↓, Monteagudo J. ↑,
46', Gutierrez I. ↓, Ciccolini L. ↑,
57', Sosa A. 🟨,
60', 2 - 0, Montagna E. ⚽, Silba L. (A),
64', Ayala R. 🟨,
70', Servetto N. ↓, Calleros Y. ↑,
70', Meli M. ↓, Ospitaleche F. ↑,
74', Moyano P. ↓, Aquilino G. ↑,
76', Montagna E. ↓, Cosi J. ↑,
76', Giacopuzzi F. ↓, Gutierrez A. ↑,
81', Solis N. ↓, Barrientos N. ↑,
90+2', 2 - 1, Ciccolini L. ⚽,
90+4', De Tomasso J. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 9 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

Deportivo Madryn is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Defensores's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Deportivo Madryn may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Deportivo Madryn might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Madryn won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 1.7:1).

Including home match between the teams, Deportivo Madryn won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Madryn
Argentinian Primera Nacional
18.04.26	Ciudad de Bolívar - Deportivo Madryn	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Deportivo Madryn - Almirante Brown	2:1 ✺
05.04.26	Mitre - Deportivo Madryn	1:3 ✺
29.03.26	Deportivo Madryn - San Martín de Tucumán	1:1 ✺
21.03.26	Deportivo Madryn - Estudiantes de Caseros	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 LWWTW
- Defensores de Belgrano
Argentinian Primera Nacional
19.04.26	Racing de Córdoba - Defensores de Belgrano	3:0 ✺
12.04.26	Defensores de Belgrano - Ciudad de Bolívar	0:0 ✺
05.04.26	Almirante Brown - Defensores de Belgrano	0:2 ✺
30.03.26	Defensores de Belgrano - Atlético de Rafaela	1:1 ✺
21.03.26	Defensores de Belgrano - Mitre	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
01.09.24	Deportivo Madryn - Defensores de Belgrano	0:0
14.04.24	Defensores de Belgrano - Deportivo Madryn	2:3
05.03.22	Defensores de Belgrano - Deportivo Madryn	1:2

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