Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 28 April 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro (Ibagué)

Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Bolivia	ESPN 2
Brazil	Disney+
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+, ESPN 5
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2
Ecuador	ESPN 2
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN 2
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 2, Inter


	Deportes Tolima		Coquimbo Unido

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.7	7	Watch
	2	3.2	3.8
	1.6	3.45	6.4
	1.62	3.69	6.87
	1.61	3.63	6.49	Watch
	1.6	3.3	6
	1.65	3.6	6.38	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (2)	3.51 ↑ (3.23)	6.13 ↑ (4.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportes Tolima
57.2%

Draw
27.2%

Coquimbo Unido
15.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.2%

29.3%

23.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.6%

30.2%

22.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportes Tolima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Deportes Tolima's performance.

Coquimbo Unido has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Coquimbo Unido might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Tolima than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Deportes Tolima that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Coquimbo Unido than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Coquimbo Unido could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	60%	0%

Deportes Tolima - Coquimbo Unido Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Deportes Tolima will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Coquimbo (4.85) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Coquimbo (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Neto Volpi (G) 28. Lopez E. 3. Angulo J. 2. Angulo A. (C) 17. Arrieta C. 80. Rovira B. 32. Guzman S. 24. Parra Osorio A. 10. Torres Patino J. P. 18. Florez K. 9. Sandoval L.	13. Sanchez D. (G) 17. Salinas F. 2. Gazzolo B. 3. Fernandez M. 16. Cornejo J. 8. Camargo A. 7. Galani S. (C) 15. Zavala C. 30. Chandia B. 11. Azocar Machuca A. E. 9. Johansen N.
Substitutes
30. Barbosa Gomez S. P. 7. Gonzalez J. 20. Hernandez J. 22. Marquinez L. (G) 31. Moreno Y. 33. Mosquera J. 15. Nieto J. 71. Osorio Y. 29. Sanchez N. 6. Trujillo C. 8. Valencia E. 11. Valencia J.	28. Cabrera S. 14. Cordero S. 21. Dorador C. (G) 5. Escobar D. 1. Flores G. (G) 6. Glaby D. 20. Mundaca Barraza M. A. 12. Pratto L. 27. Riveros L. 18. Rodriguez P. 26. Soza L. 10. Vadala G.
Coaches
Gonzalez L.	Caputto H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', Zavala C. 🟨,
18', Arrieta C. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
56', Chandia B. ↓, Vadala G. ↑,
59', 1 - 0, Guzman S. (Penalty Awarded),
59', Fernandez M. 🟨,
66', 2 - 0, Sandoval L. ⚽, Torres Patino J. P. (A),
67', Azocar Machuca A. E. ↓, Riveros L. ↑,
67', Johansen N. ↓, Pratto L. ↑,
70', Lopez E. ↓, Trujillo C. ↑,
70', Parra Osorio A. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
70', Rovira B. ↓, Osorio Y. ↑,
75', Angulo J. ↓, Barbosa Gomez S. P. ↑,
78', 3 - 0, Gonzalez J. ⚽,
79', Florez K. ↓, Valencia E. ↑,
79', Camargo A. ↓, Glaby D. ↑,
84', Vadala G. 🟨,

Preview

Deportes Tolima is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Coquimbo is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Deportes Tolima might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Deportes Tolima: Moreno Y. (Inactive) Osorio Y. (Inactive)

There will not play in Coquimbo: Hernandez E. (Inactive) Holgado R. (Inactive)

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

Coquimbo: 0.75% Deportes Tolima: 0.62%

Last Results with these Odds

Deportes Tolima - the odds 2 are the expected chance of winning is 47.24%, but this team recently wins 54% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportes Tolima
Colombian Primera A
23.04.26	Millonarios - Deportes Tolima	2:0 ✺
18.04.26	Deportes Tolima - Deportivo Pereira	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.04.26	Nacional Montevideo - Deportes Tolima	3:1 ✺
Colombian Primera A
10.04.26	Deportivo Pasto - Deportes Tolima	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.04.26	Deportes Tolima - Universitario de Deportes	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LWLLT
- Coquimbo Unido
Chilean Primera Division
24.04.26	Unión La Calera - Coquimbo Unido	1:2 ✺
19.04.26	Coquimbo Unido - Ñublense	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.04.26	Universitario de Deportes - Coquimbo Unido	0:2 ✺
08.04.26	Coquimbo Unido - Nacional Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
03.04.26	Coquimbo Unido - Cobresal	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WTWTW

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