Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 1

Date: 7 April 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro (Ibagué)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 3
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Bolivia	ESPN
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+, ESPN 5
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Ecuador	ESPN
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Spain	LaLiga+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Deportes Tolima		Universitario de Deportes

	1	X	2
	1.9	3	5.25	Watch
	2.2	3	3.4
	1.98	2.98	4.25	Watch
	1.96	3.1	4.79
	1.92	3.12	4.72	Watch
	1.91	2.9	4.4
	1.98	3.13	4.63	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↓ (2.25)	3.03 ↑ (2.8)	4.49 ↑ (3.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportes Tolima
47.8%

Draw
31.2%

Universitario de Deportes
21%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42%

33.6%

24.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

32.7%

23.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportes Tolima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Deportes Tolima's performance.

Universitario de Deportes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Tolima than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universitario de Deportes than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	33.3%	11.1%

Deportes Tolima - Universitario de Deportes Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Deportes Tolima will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Uni de Deportes will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Deportes Tolima: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Uni de Deportes (4.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Uni de Deportes (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Neto Volpi (G) 17. Arrieta C. 3. Angulo J. 33. Mosquera J. 20. Hernandez J. 6. Trujillo C. 80. Rovira B. (C) 32. Guzman S. 10. Torres Patino J. P. 24. Parra Osorio A. 9. Sandoval L.	25. Vargas M. (G) 33. Inga C. 2. Fara C. 3. Riveros W. 5. Di Benedetto M. 27. Carabali J. 16. Perez Guedes M. 6. Castillo J. 17. Concha J. 20. Valera A. (C) 11. Rivera J.
Substitutes
7. Gonzalez J. 28. Lopez E. 22. Marquinez L. (G) 27. Martinez M. 5. Mera J. 31. Moreno Y. 71. Osorio Y. 21. Parra Y. A. 4. Pedrozo D. 16. Reyes V. 14. Ricardo E. 29. Sanchez N.	26. Ancajima H. 10. Calcaterra H. 29. Corzo A. 8. Fertoli H. 19. Flores E. 90. Gassama S. 99. Miguel Silveira 23. Murrugarra J. 77. Reyna B. 14. Reyna P. 1. Romero D. (G) 4. Santamaria A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Mosquera J. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
52', Rivera J. ↓, Flores E. ↑,
52', Perez Guedes M. ↓, Miguel Silveira ↑,
67', Sandoval L. ↓, Osorio Y. ↑,
70', Valera A. ↓, Reyna B. ↑,
77', Concha J. ↓, Fertoli H. ↑,
77', Castillo J. ↓, Calcaterra H. ↑,
78', Hernandez J. ↓, Sanchez N. ↑,
87', Arrieta C. ↓, Lopez E. ↑,

Preview

Now, both teams are in good form.

Deportes Tolima may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Deportes Tolima has had a series of home games.

Deportes Tolima could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Uni de Deportes: Reyna B. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Deportes Tolima: Lopez E. (Injury)

There are questionable in Uni de Deportes: Alzugaray L. (Injury) Carabali J. (Injury)

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

Deportes Tolima: 0.62%

Last Results with these Odds

Deportes Tolima - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 41.97%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportes Tolima
Colombian Primera A
04.04.26	Deportes Tolima - Independiente Santa Fe	2:2 ✺
31.03.26	Deportes Tolima - Rionegro Águilas	4:1 ✺
28.03.26	Deportes Tolima - Jaguares de Córdoba	3:1 ✺
23.03.26	Boyacá Chicó - Deportes Tolima	1:1 ✺
19.03.26	Deportes Tolima - Fortaleza CEIF	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TWWTW
- Universitario de Deportes
Peruvian Liga 1
04.04.26	Universitario de Deportes - Alianza Lima	1:0 ✺
21.03.26	Comerciantes Unidos - Universitario de Deportes	0:0 ✺
14.03.26	Universitario de Deportes - Cajamarca	2:0 ✺
08.03.26	Los Chankas - Universitario de Deportes	3:1 ✺
01.03.26	Universitario de Deportes - Cajamarca	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WTWLW

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