Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 18

Date: 23 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio El Campín (Bogotá)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belarus	Sport TV
Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play, Win Sports
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2


	Millonarios		Deportes Tolima

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.75	5.75	Watch
	1.68	3.7	4.95
	1.63	3.89	5.92
	1.68	3.72	5.03	Watch
	1.6	3.5	5
	1.6	3.65	5.92	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (1.9)	3.7 ↑ (3.46)	5.43 ↑ (3.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Millonarios
57.4%

Draw
25.3%

Deportes Tolima
17.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.1%

27%

23.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49%

27.1%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Millonarios has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Millonarios's performance.

Deportes Tolima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Deportes Tolima might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Millonarios than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Millonarios that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Tolima than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Deportes Tolima could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.9%	7.1%	0%

Millonarios - Deportes Tolima Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Millonarios (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Millonarios will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.37% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. De Amores G. (G) 2. Sarabia C. 17. Arias J. 26. Llinas A. 22. Valencia S. 19. Garcia M. 18. Urena R. 30. Viveros S. 23. Castro L. 14. Silva D. (C) 7. Quintero D.	22. Marquinez L. (G) 17. Arrieta C. 3. Angulo J. 4. Pedrozo D. 20. Hernandez J. 15. Nieto J. (C) 6. Trujillo C. 7. Gonzalez J. 14. Ricardo E. 8. Valencia E. 24. Parra Osorio A.
Substitutes
24. Angulo J. 33. Castro A. 11. Castro Espinosa B. D. 4. Elizalde E. 29. Moreno Paz A. F. 38. Rodriguez D. (G) 3. Samuel M. 28. Vega S. 8. Victoria Palacios D. S.	23. Balanta Carabali G. J. (G) 18. Florez K. 27. Martinez M. 33. Mosquera J. 21. Parra Y. A. 80. Rovira B. 29. Sanchez N. 19. Santiago J. 11. Valencia J.
Coaches
Bustos F.	Gonzalez L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', Ricardo E. 🟨,
35', Valencia S. 🟨,
42', 1 - 0, Silva D. ⚽, Viveros S. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', 2 - 0, Castro L. (Penalty Awarded),
59', Nieto J. ↓, Florez K. ↑,
60', Gonzalez J. ↓, Sanchez N. ↑,
60', Ricardo E. ↓, Rovira B. ↑,
65', Pedrozo D. 🟨,
66', Silva D. ↓, Vega S. ↑,
68', Valencia E. ↓, Valencia J. ↑,
75', Arias J. ↓, Moreno Paz A. F. ↑,
75', Viveros S. ↓, Elizalde E. ↑,
77', Parra Osorio A. ↓, Santiago J. ↑,
83', De Amores G. 🟨,
84', Elizalde E. 🟨,
84', Valencia S. ↓, Angulo J. ↑,
84', Valencia J. 🟨,
85', Garcia M. ↓, Castro A. ↑,
87', Urena R. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 12 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: )).

Deportes Tolima is Qualified for Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Millonarios won 3.

Millonarios is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Deportes Tolima has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Millonarios is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Millonarios won 3 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 17:24. (average 0.9:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Millonarios won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:6. (average 0.9:0.7).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Millonarios	14	5	7	2	19:12	7	22
8	Deportes Tolima	13	5	5	3	15:13	2	20

Last Results with these Odds

Millonarios - the odds 1.9 are the expected chance of winning is 49.11%, but this team recently wins 58% of matches with these odds.

Deportes Tolima - the odds 3.9 are the expected chance of winning is 23.92%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Millonarios FC
Colombian Primera A
19.04.26	América de Cali - Millonarios	3:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
15.04.26	Millonarios - Boston River	1:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
12.04.26	Millonarios - Independiente Santa Fe	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.04.26	OHiggins - Millonarios	2:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
02.04.26	Jaguares de Córdoba - Millonarios	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LWTLL
- Deportes Tolima
Colombian Primera A
18.04.26	Deportes Tolima - Deportivo Pereira	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.04.26	Nacional Montevideo - Deportes Tolima	3:1 ✺
Colombian Primera A
10.04.26	Deportivo Pasto - Deportes Tolima	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.04.26	Deportes Tolima - Universitario de Deportes	0:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
04.04.26	Deportes Tolima - Independiente Santa Fe	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 WLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
17.08.25	Deportes Tolima - Millonarios	3:1
02.03.25	Millonarios - Deportes Tolima	2:0
02.08.24	Millonarios - Deportes Tolima	1:0
03.02.24	Deportes Tolima - Millonarios	2:0
07.08.23	Millonarios - Deportes Tolima	1:0
29.03.23	Deportes Tolima - Millonarios	1:1
22.10.22	Deportes Tolima - Millonarios	1:0

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