Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 13

Date: 10 April 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Metropolitano de Techo (Bogotá)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	VIX+, ViX Premium


	Deportivo La Equidad		Independiente Santa Fe

	1	X	2
	3.6	3	2.2	Watch
	3.2	3	2.2
	3.55	3.15	2.18	Watch
	3.61	3.05	2.17	Watch
	3.4	2.9	2.25
	3.74	2.99	2.14	Watch
	3.55	3.15	2.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.52 ↑ (2.6)	3.03 ↓ (3.1)	2.19 ↓ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo La Equidad
26.5%

Draw
30.8%

Independiente Santa Fe
42.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.4%

29.7%

35%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.1%

29.4%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo La Equidad has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Deportivo La Equidad's form might have worsened.

Independiente Santa Fe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Independiente Santa Fe's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo La Equidad than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Deportivo La Equidad, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Santa Fe than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Independiente Santa Fe, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	11.1%	88.9%

Deportivo La Equidad - Independiente Santa Fe Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Santa Fe will win (votes: 16 - 88.9%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Santa Fe: 74.4% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - La Equidad (2.42) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Independiente Santa Fe will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. La Equidad (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Santa Fe (votes: 7 - 77.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Varela C. (G) 20. Angel Amaya Pena M. 4. Tegue G. 30. Agron B. 26. Torralvo A. 16. Mayo S. 6. Orozco S. 14. Acosta F. (C) 13. Abonia Y. 10. Cruz W. 25. Lopez S.	1. Mosquera A. (G) 17. Ararat J. 18. Olivera E. 3. Moreno V. 32. Mafla C. 20. Velasquez Y. 14. Torres J. 23. Mosquera H. 10. Zapata A. 8. Fernandez O. 11. Rodallega H.
Substitutes
37. Asprilla J. 28. Chaverra F. 33. Copete D. 7. Del Valle A. 24. Montano B. 12. Perez A. (G) 8. Tamara S.	80. Albornoz O. 34. Balanta M. 12. Mehring A. (G) 21. Murillo E. 9. Rodriguez A. 15. Scarpeta Silgado I. R. 16. Torres D.
Coaches
Bodmer J.	Bava J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
9', Mayo S. 🟨,
14', Abonia Y. 🟨,
32', Tegue G. ↓, Montano B. ↑,
33', Orozco S. 🟨,
39', Moreno V. 🟨,
45+2', 0 - 1, Rodallega H. (Pen),
45+9', 1 - 1, Orozco S. ⚽, Abonia Y. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Orozco S. ↓, Copete D. ↑,
49', 2 - 1, Copete D. ⚽, Torralvo A. (A),
61', Zapata A. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
61', Velasquez Y. ↓, Murillo E. ↑,
67', Murillo E. 🟨,
68', Lopez S. ↓, Chaverra F. ↑,
69', Copete D. ↓, Tamara S. ↑,
71', Torres J. ↓, Albornoz O. ↑,
71', Mosquera H. ↓, Balanta M. ↑,
76', Varela C. 🟨,
85', Ararat J. ↓, Torres D. ↑,
87', Abonia Y. ↓, Del Valle A. ↑,
90+5', Balanta M. 🟨,
90+5', Chaverra F. 🟨,
90+6', Del Valle A. 🟨,

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 20 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Quadrangular: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches La Equidad won 2.

La Equidad is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Santa Fe is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Santa Fe will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 20 head-to-head matches La Equidad won 5 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 16:21 (average 0.8:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams La Equidad won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 8:13 (average 0.9:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo La Equidad
Colombian Primera A
05.04.25	Deportivo Cali - Deportivo La Equidad	3:1 ✺
31.03.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Junior Barranquilla	0:1 ✺
22.03.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Fortaleza CEIF	1:1 ✺
14.03.25	Deportivo Pasto - Deportivo La Equidad	2:1 ✺
08.03.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Independiente Medellín	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLTLT
- Independiente Santa Fe
Colombian Primera A
04.04.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Deportivo Pasto	1:1 ✺
30.03.25	Unión Magdalena - Independiente Santa Fe	0:1 ✺
26.03.25	Millonarios - Independiente Santa Fe	2:0 ✺
22.03.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Millonarios	3:2 ✺
19.03.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Atlético Bucaramanga	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 TWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
27.07.24	Independiente Santa Fe - Deportivo La Equidad	0:1
26.05.24	Independiente Santa Fe - Deportivo La Equidad	2:0
12.05.24	Deportivo La Equidad - Independiente Santa Fe	0:2
30.01.24	Deportivo La Equidad - Independiente Santa Fe	1:0
12.08.23	Independiente Santa Fe - Deportivo La Equidad	1:1
19.02.23	Deportivo La Equidad - Independiente Santa Fe	0:1
10.07.22	Deportivo La Equidad - Independiente Santa Fe	2:2

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