Match Info

Primera A - Clausura - Round 15

Date: 11 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro (Ibagué)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Mexico	Fanatiz
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2


	Deportes Tolima		Envigado

	1	X	2
	1.48	4	7.5	Watch
	1.41	4.25	7.9	Watch
	1.45	4.3	9.41
	1.71	2.77	8.17	Watch
	1.4	4.15	8.45	Watch
	1.33	4.25	9.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↑ (1.33)	3.95 ↓ (4.25)	8.49 ↓ (9.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportes Tolima
64.8%

Draw
24%

Envigado
11.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.8%

21.5%

9.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.8%

20.3%

9.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportes Tolima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Envigado has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Tolima than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Deportes Tolima, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Envigado than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Deportes Tolima - Envigado Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Neto Volpi (G) 26. Hurtado Torres Y. D. 17. Torres M. 2. Angulo A. (C) 20. Hernandez J. 6. Trujillo C. 19. Torres Patino J. P. 7. Gonzalez J. 18. Perez K. 13. Gonzalez M. 11. Lencina G.	1. Montoya J. (G) 15. Cuervo S. 28. Gamboa Valencia J. J. 30. Agron B. 27. Quejada J. 6. Palacio J. 14. Hinestroza J. 8. Espana Alvarez R. C. 13. Soto T. 31. Berrio F. 9. Londono S.
Substitutes
71. Arrieta C. 23. Balanta Carabali G. J. (G) 25. Fuentes J. 9. Larregui B. 28. Moreno Y. 24. Parra Osorio A. 4. Quinones J. 42. Quinones J. 33. Velasquez S.	68. Aristizabal J. 7. Dawson D. 11. Garces J. 3. Holguin J. 18. Hurtado W. 21. Lopez E. 88. Tovar A. (G) 4. Uribe N. 26. Valencia Mosquera D. A.
Coaches
Gonzalez L.	Orozco A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
13', 0 - 1, Espana Alvarez R. C. (Pen),
26', Hinestroza J. 🟨,
27', 1 - 1, Gonzalez M. ⚽,
33', Hurtado Torres Y. D. 🟨,
39', Neto Volpi 🟨,
39', Angulo A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Angulo A. ↓, Quinones J. ↑,
46', Hernandez J. ↓, Velasquez S. ↑,
62', Hinestroza J. ↓, Aristizabal J. ↑,
62', Soto T. ↓, Hurtado W. ↑,
63', Gonzalez J. ↓, Arrieta C. ↑,
63', Lencina G. ↓, Fuentes J. ↑,
66', Fuentes J. ↓, Parra Osorio A. ↑,
69', Gamboa Valencia J. J. 🟨,
72', Londono S. ↓, Garces J. ↑,
72', Espana Alvarez R. C. ↓, Valencia Mosquera D. A. ↑,
83', Berrio F. ↓, Dawson D. ↑,
87', 1 - 2, Hurtado W. ⚽, Valencia Mosquera D. A. (A),

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Clausura ~ Quadrangular: ) and 17).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportes Tolima won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Deportes Tolima may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Deportes Tolima is the clear favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Deportes Tolima won 12 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 34:18. (average 1.7:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Deportes Tolima won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 20:4. (average 2:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportes Tolima
Colombian Primera A
05.10.25	Junior Barranquilla - Deportes Tolima	0:1 ✺
27.09.25	Deportes Tolima - Independiente Medellín	2:3 ✺
19.09.25	Atlético Bucaramanga - Deportes Tolima	2:0 ✺
14.09.25	Deportes Tolima - Boyacá Chicó	4:0 ✺
06.09.25	Llaneros SA - Deportes Tolima	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WLLWL
- Envigado FC
Colombian Copa
07.10.25	Envigado - Deportivo Pereira	2:1 ✺
Colombian Primera A
04.10.25	Envigado - Atlético Bucaramanga	1:2 ✺
28.09.25	América de Cali - Envigado	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Envigado - Alianza Valledupar	0:0 ✺
Colombian Copa
16.09.25	Millonarios - Envigado	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.1 WLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
20.04.25	Envigado - Deportes Tolima	3:1
06.11.24	Deportes Tolima - Envigado	3:0
16.04.24	Envigado - Deportes Tolima	0:2
21.09.23	Deportes Tolima - Envigado	2:0
13.04.23	Envigado - Deportes Tolima	2:1
29.10.22	Envigado - Deportes Tolima	1:1
16.06.22	Deportes Tolima - Envigado	1:0

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