Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Qualification - Final

Date: 11 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro (Ibagué)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bolivia	ESPN
Brazil	Globo Esporte, Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	ESPN Premium
Colombia	ESPN
Ecuador	ESPN
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Spain	LaLiga+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Deportes Tolima		OHiggins

	1	X	2
	1.44	4.33	6.5	Watch
	1.65	3.6	5.25
	1.46	3.95	6.9
	1.48	4.24	6.93
	1.48	4.32	6.81	Watch
	1.44	3.9	6.5	Watch
	1.51	4.25	6.89	Watch
	1.67	3.7	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.65)	4.04 ↑ (3.58)	6.37 ↑ (5.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportes Tolima
62%

Draw
23.3%

OHiggins
14.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.4%

26%

17.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.7%

24.7%

18.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportes Tolima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Deportes Tolima's performance.

OHiggins has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Tolima than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Deportes Tolima that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for OHiggins than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Deportes Tolima - OHiggins Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportes Tolima (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - OHiggins (2.21) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - OHiggins (4.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Deportes Tolima will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportes Tolima (votes: 1 - 25%). OHiggins (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Neto Volpi (G) 17. Arrieta C. 3. Angulo J. 2. Angulo A. (C) 20. Hernandez J. 32. Guzman S. 80. Rovira B. 7. Gonzalez J. 10. Torres Patino J. P. 24. Parra Osorio A. 9. Sandoval L.	31. Carabali O. (G) 3. Faundez F. 22. Robledo A. (C) 33. Brizuela M. 6. Pavez L. 28. Schamine B. 11. Leiva J. 24. Gonzalez F. 10. Rabello B. 7. Martin Sarrafiore 9. Castillo A.
Substitutes
22. Marquinez L. (G) 27. Martinez M. 5. Mera J. 31. Moreno Y. 15. Nieto J. 21. Parra Y. A. 4. Pedrozo D. 14. Ricardo E. 11. Valencia J.	16. Calderon E. 20. Diaz L. 21. Garrido N. 26. Godoy R. 14. Maturana M. 2. Morales C. 1. Pena Jorge (G) 5. Pinto G. 15. Rojas B. 30. Tapia J. 32. Vecino T. 29. Yanez B.
Coaches
Gonzalez L.	Bovaglio L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', Gonzalez J. 🟨,
38', 1 - 0, Hernandez J. ⚽, Rovira B. (A),
39', Ricardo E. 🟨,
45+1', Schamine B. ↓, Pinto G. ↑,
45+5', Brizuela M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', Rabello B. ↓, Tapia J. ↑,
62', Rovira B. ↓, Ricardo E. ↑,
78', Parra Osorio A. ↓, Valencia J. ↑,
83', Leiva J. ↓, Garrido N. ↑,
83', Castillo A. ↓, Vecino T. ↑,
83', Martin Sarrafiore ↓, Yanez B. ↑,
87', 2 - 0, Torres Patino J. P. ⚽, Valencia J. (A),
89', Parra Osorio A. 🟨,
90+1', Sandoval L. ↓, Mera J. ↑,
90+2', Guzman S. 🟨,
90+2', Robledo A. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 0-1. Second leg.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

OHiggins may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Deportes Tolima is considered a favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Deportes Tolima won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

Deportes Tolima: 0.62%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportes Tolima
Copa Libertadores
04.03.26	OHiggins - Deportes Tolima	1:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
01.03.26	Deportes Tolima - Atlético Nacional	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
26.02.26	Deportes Tolima - Deportivo Táchira	1:1 penalties ✺
Colombian Primera A
23.02.26	Cúcuta Deportivo - Deportes Tolima	3:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
19.02.26	Deportivo Táchira - Deportes Tolima	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LWLLW
- OHiggins
Chilean Primera Division
07.03.26	OHiggins - Universidad Católica	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
04.03.26	OHiggins - Deportes Tolima	1:0 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
28.02.26	Palestino - OHiggins	4:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
25.02.26	Bahia - OHiggins	2:2 penalties ✺
Chilean Primera Division
21.02.26	OHiggins - Colo-Colo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
04.03.26	OHiggins - Deportes Tolima	1:0

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