Match Info

Liga de Primera - Round 6

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio El Teniente (Rancagua)

Referee: Lara J. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TNT Sports


	OHiggins		Universidad Católica

	1	X	2
	4	3.4	1.86	Watch
	2.9	3.3	2.3
	3.95	3.35	1.92
	4.24	3.46	1.98
	3.75	3.43	1.98
	3.6	3.1	1.91
	3.94	3.35	1.92	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.77 ↑ (2.64)	3.34 ↑ (3.22)	1.98 ↓ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

OHiggins
24.8%

Draw
28%

Universidad Católica
47.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.3%

28.9%

35.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35%

28.7%

36.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

OHiggins has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that OHiggins's form might have worsened.

Universidad Católica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Universidad Católica's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for OHiggins than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for OHiggins, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Universidad Católica than the current prediction. (-11.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Universidad Católica, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	0%	88.9%

OHiggins - Universidad Católica Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. OHiggins will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Uni Católica will win (votes: 8 - 88.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Uni Católica: 68.4% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. OHiggins (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Uni Católica (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Carabali O. (G) 15. Rojas B. 21. Garrido N. 33. Brizuela M. 6. Pavez L. (C) 24. Gonzalez F. 8. Felipe Ogaz 11. Leiva J. 29. Yanez B. 30. Tapia J. 9. Castillo A.	1. Bernedo V. (G) 23. Asta-Buruaga T. 26. Diaz J. 19. Ampuero B. 15. Cuevas C. 20. Valencia J. 17. Medel G. 46. Carcamo V. 14. Martinez J. A. 7. Giani J. 9. Zampedri F. (C)
Substitutes
16. Calderon E. 20. Diaz L. 3. Faundez F. 26. Godoy R. 7. Martin Sarrafiore 1. Pena Jorge (G) 5. Pinto G. 28. Schamine B. 32. Vecino T.	13. Canales A. 28. Cerezo B. 25. Farias A. 22. Gomez M. 27. Melo D. (G) 3. Mena E. 11. Montes C. 10. Palavecino M. 30. Valencia D.
Coaches
Bovaglio L.	Garnero D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', Pavez L. 🟨,
5', Ampuero B. 🟨,
23', Cuevas C. 🟨,
38', 1 - 0, Yanez B. ⚽, Gonzalez F. (A),
45+3', Diaz J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Carcamo V. ↓, Palavecino M. ↑,
46', Valencia J. ↓, Montes C. ↑,
46', Castillo A. ↓, Vecino T. ↑,
52', Vecino T. 🟨,
62', Leiva J. ↓, Martin Sarrafiore ↑,
62', Gonzalez F. ↓, Schamine B. ↑,
67', Martinez J. A. ↓, Canales A. ↑,
67', Asta-Buruaga T. ↓, Cerezo B. ↑,
68', Felipe Ogaz 🟨,
75', Tapia J. ↓, Faundez F. ↑,
75', Pavez L. ↓, Diaz L. ↑,
87', Giani J. ↓, Gomez M. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 13 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, OHiggins won 2.

OHiggins has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Uni Católica is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Uni Católica may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Uni Católica is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, OHiggins won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 27:32. (average 1.4:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, OHiggins won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:15. (average 1.5:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	U. Catolica	23	13	3	7	50:33	17	42
13	O'Higgins	24	8	3	13	28:38	-10	27

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- OHiggins
Copa Libertadores
04.03.26	OHiggins - Deportes Tolima	1:0 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
28.02.26	Palestino - OHiggins	4:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
25.02.26	Bahia - OHiggins	2:2 penalties ✺
Chilean Primera Division
21.02.26	OHiggins - Colo-Colo	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
18.02.26	OHiggins - Bahia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 WLWLW
- Universidad Católica
Chilean Primera Division
01.03.26	Ñublense - Universidad Católica	1:2 ✺
21.02.26	Universidad Católica - Coquimbo Unido	3:1 ✺
14.02.26	Cobresal - Universidad Católica	3:2 ✺
08.02.26	Universidad Católica - Deportes Concepción	2:0 ✺
01.02.26	Deportes La Serena - Universidad Católica	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Primera Division
02.11.25	Universidad Católica - OHiggins	0:2
17.05.25	OHiggins - Universidad Católica	2:0
06.10.24	OHiggins - Universidad Católica	0:2
11.05.24	Universidad Católica - OHiggins	3:2
07.10.23	OHiggins - Universidad Católica	0:3
22.04.23	Universidad Católica - OHiggins	0:1
11.08.22	Universidad Católica - OHiggins	2:2

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