Match Info

Copa del Rey - Quarter-finals

Date: 4 February 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Mendizorrotza (Vitoria-Gasteiz) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Quintero A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	17:00	Flow Eventos, Flow Sports
Austria	21:00	DAZN
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport 3
Brazil	17:00	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	04:00	ZhiBo8
Colombia	15:00	Win play
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 5, Cytavision Sports 5
Denmark	21:00	Disney+
Ecuador	15:00	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Finland	22:00	Disney+, Veikkaus TV
France	21:00	DAZN France
Germany	21:00	DAZN Deutsch
India	01:30	FanCode, FanCode
Italy	21:00	DAZN Italia
Macao	04:00	Macau Cable TV 35 Sports
Mexico	14:00	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
North Central America	—	Flow Sports 2 Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Norway	21:00	Disney+
Paraguay	17:00	Flow Eventos
Peru	15:00	America TV GO, America TV, Movistar TV App
Poland	21:00	Eleven Sports 3
Romania	22:00	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3, Prima Sport 5
Russia	23:00	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi Arabia	23:00	MBC Shahid
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 5
Slovenia	21:00	Arena Sport 4
Spain	21:00	LaLiga TV Bar 2, M+ LaLiga 2
Sweden	21:00	Disney+
Switzerland	21:00	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	23:00	S Sport+
Uruguay	17:00	Flow
Usa	15:00	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	16:00	Inter, Meridiano, Venevision


	Deportivo Alavés		Real Sociedad

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.1	2.4	Watch
	2.98	3.15	2.52
	3.06	3.19	2.56
	2.99	3.2	2.5	Watch
	2.88	2.9	2.5
	3.08	3.16	2.56	Watch
	3	3.14	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.98 ↑ (2.96)	3.12 ↑ (3.01)	2.5 ↓ (2.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Alavés
31.8%

Draw
30.3%

Real Sociedad
37.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

31.9%

31.4%

36.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.3%

31.8%

36.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Alavés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Real Sociedad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Alavés than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Sociedad than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.2%	37.8%	45.9%

Deportivo Alavés - Real Sociedad Predictions

Users Predictions: 36 users predict this event. Alavés will win (votes: 5 - 13.9%). Real Sociedad will win (votes: 17 - 47.2%). It will Tie (votes: 14 - 38.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Real Sociedad: 30.9% – 63.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Alavés (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Real Sociedad (votes: 4 - 50%). Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Alavés (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

TQ, OT - Real Sociedad (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Real Sociedad (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Alavés (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Real Sociedad (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Fernandez R. (G) 17. Jonny Otto 14. Tenaglia N. 5. Pacheco J. 24. Parada V. 20. Calebe 4. Suarez D. 6. Guevara A. (C) 21. Rebbach A. 34. Manas A. 11. Martinez T.	1. Remiro A. (G) 2. Aramburu J. 31. Martin J. 16. Caleta-Car D. 3. Munoz A. 11. Guedes G. 8. Turrientes B. 18. Soler C. 17. Gomez S. 23. Mendez B. 10. Oyarzabal M. (C)
Substitutes
10. Alena C. 8. Blanco A. 15. Boye L. 2. Garces F. 18. Guridi J. 19. Ibanez P. 7. Perez A. 1. Sivera A. (G) 31. Swiderski G. (G) 3. Yusi	26. Diaz D. 6. Elustondo A. 32. Fraga A. (G) 4. Gorrotxategi J. 12. Herrera Y. 15. Marin P. 20. Odriozola A. 9. Oskarsson O. 24. Sucic L. 22. Wesley 5. Zubeldia I.
Coaches
Coudet E.	Matarazzo P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
8', 1 - 0, Rebbach A. ⚽, Manas A. (A),
15', 1 - 1, Oyarzabal M. ⚽, Guedes G. (A),
28', Turrientes B. 🟨,
29', 2 - 1, Martinez T. (Penalty Awarded),
37', Guedes G. 🟨,
45+1', Munoz A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
59', Aramburu J. ↓, Odriozola A. ↑,
59', Soler C. ↓, Sucic L. ↑,
66', Caleta-Car D. 🟨,
67', Martinez T. (Penalty Awarded),
71', Manas A. ↓, Boye L. ↑,
71', Calebe ↓, Ibanez P. ↑,
74', Mendez B. ↓, Oskarsson O. ↑,
74', Munoz A. ↓, Diaz D. ↑,
75', Guevara A. 🟨,
76', 2 - 2, Guedes G. ⚽, Turrientes B. (A),
80', 2 - 3, Oskarsson O. ⚽, Sucic L. (A),
83', Boye L. 🟨,
84', Suarez D. ↓, Alena C. ↑,
84', Rebbach A. ↓, Perez A. ↑,
90+1', Pacheco J. ↓, Guridi J. ↑,
90+2', Guedes G. ↓, Zubeldia I. ↑,
90+8', Ibanez P. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alavés won 3.

In recent matches, Alavés has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Real Sociedad is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Real Sociedad may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Alavés: Diabate I. (Inactive) Diaz M. (Coach's decision) Protesoni C. (Injury)

There will not play in Real Sociedad: Barrenetxea A. (Muscle Injury) Karrikaburu J. (Inactive) Kubo T. (Muscle Injury) Marrero U. (Injury) Ruperez I. (Knee Injury) Zakharyan A. (Calf Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Alavés won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 16:23. (average 0.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Alavés won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 0.8:0.8).

Outrights of Spanish Copa del Rey for now

Real Sociedad: 5.3% Alaves: 1.05%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Alavés
Spanish LaLiga
30.01.26	Espanyol - Deportivo Alavés	1:2 ✺
25.01.26	Deportivo Alavés - Betis	2:1 ✺
18.01.26	Atlético Madrid - Deportivo Alavés	1:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
14.01.26	Deportivo Alavés - Rayo Vallecano	2:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
10.01.26	Villarreal - Deportivo Alavés	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 WWLWL
- Real Sociedad
Spanish LaLiga
01.02.26	Athletic Bilbao - Real Sociedad	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Real Sociedad - Celta de Vigo	3:1 ✺
18.01.26	Real Sociedad - Barcelona	2:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
13.01.26	Real Sociedad - Osasuna	3:2 penalties ✺
Spanish LaLiga
09.01.26	Getafe - Real Sociedad	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.1 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
06.12.25	Deportivo Alavés - Real Sociedad	1:0
23.04.25	Deportivo Alavés - Real Sociedad	1:0
28.08.24	Real Sociedad - Deportivo Alavés	1:2
Club Friendly
20.07.24	Deportivo Alavés - Real Sociedad	1:1
Spanish LaLiga
31.03.24	Deportivo Alavés - Real Sociedad	0:1
02.01.24	Real Sociedad - Deportivo Alavés	1:1
13.03.22	Real Sociedad - Deportivo Alavés	1:0

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